It’s been a while since my last update, and that is a good thing in that means our area has not been seeing any significant tropical activity. As an “added bonus”, I do not expect to see much in the way of the tropics for Gulf Shores this season.
Hurricane Isaac, a Cat 1 storm, is rolling around in the Atlantic and could affect Canada near the end of the week.
I never though that I would enter a blog entry talking about Hurricanes, Earthquakes, and Tsunami’s all in one sitting and be referring to our beloved Gulf Shores, Alabama.
So, let’s get this ball rolling. First, Hurricane Florence. She is rolling around the Atlantic as a Category One Hurricane with sustained winds of around 80mph. Bermuda could be under the gun, but aside from that, there does not appear to be a threat of land interaction and should dissipate and/or become extra-tropical later this week.
At 8:56am, an earthquake was reported in the Gulf of Mexico, the quake was a 6.0 on the Richter Scale, which is considered strong, however, no damage has been reported. The following graphic shows where the effects were felt along the gulf coast.
Thankfully the quake appears to have been too small to generate a Tsunami warning.
Invest 93L has formed in the Atlantic, and while conditions are somewhat favorable for development, this storm, if it develops, will likely go play with the fishies, unless it decides to visit Bermuda.
Tropical Storm Florence formed today, and while she is not the best looking tropical system as she is encountering shear, most models have her forecast to become a Hurricane by Friday.
It is way too early to start guessing at landfall, however, based on what we have right now, if she were to slow down to miss the trough that would carry her out to sea, there could be an issue for anywhere along the Eastern Seaboard.
Invest 91L is creeping up behind her, and it’s interaction with her as mentioned on www.wunderground.com could throw the long range models into even more of a tail spin.
There are other waves in the Atlantic, and the one near the Lesser Antilles and the wave coming off the coast of Africa could both have the potential to form. As indicated on various pro and amatuer tropical forums, the season is most definately wide-eyed and bushy-tailed.
At this early point, despite the wildly unpredictable storms so far this season, my money remains on the products from the NHC.
Of note, I noticed that AccuWeather provided a rather scathing review of the NHC’s “handling” of Ernesto. While I will not dive into it as much as I would like to, I will say that I wish the “chains” could be taken off the fine forecasters at the NHC and allow them to respond in kind to some of the rediculous products AccuWeather has spewed out over the past year or so. (One example was when AccuWeather listed their “landfall estimates” for this season, before the season began. Even rank amatuers such as myself are not that brash and/or uninformed.) You can count this paragraph as resounding and glowing support for the tremendous efforts of the NHC and all they do for us.
I’ll update this blog tomorrow as I get more information.
Note 2: One reader made what I thought was an execellent suggestion, so I am putting it out there for you readers: If you have any storm stories or tidbits you would like to share in an entry along the lines of “Surviving the Storm”, email them to my along with how you would like to be listed (to give you credit for the entry) and I’ll put up a special section in the next few days or week. Or if you have one or two good pictures such as the following, send it to me.
The NHC is watching Invest 98L, which is located about 600 miles west/southwest of the Cape Verde islands has formed. As a wave it did not garner much attention from the NHC or other organizations.
As with any invest, the model runs are all over the place, however the SHIPS model does bring this system to a Tropical Storm with 70kt winds. The invest is fighting shear and dry air to the north, as virtually all of the systems have this season.
It is much too early to even guess what will happen with this system, but suffice to say, the season’s activity is increasing.
As more data becomes available, I’ll provide more information.