The disturbance we discussed last week is still loitering around, now dubbed Invest 92L by the NHC. A recon flight is scheduled for June 1 at 2pm. This system could become a tropical depression by Saturday.
Right now, it appears that this system will become a much needed rain maker for the drought plagued state of Florida. At this time, I see no real threat to the Gulf Shores area and doubt that this system will become “Hurricane Barry”.
Of note, Hurricane Season has not begun, yet this is the third Atlantic Invest in less than a month. All data and modelling aside, that is very indicative of things to come.
Last year was an aberration, and I expect this year to see significant activity in the Gulf of Mexico.
The NGM Model at 48 hours does show some impact for the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area, but right now the risk of us experiencing tropical conditions remains marginal.
The GFS model here (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_p24_s_loop.shtml)
hints at the possibility of development of this area of interest in the Carribean. Should this occur, we could have our first hurricane of the season, dubbed “Barry”.
The sheer is still high, so all bets are off at the moment for development of this system.
As you can see, there is no consensus among the models. This storm is sloppy and disorganized, yet wind speeds are remaining consistant. Based on initial data this morning, it appears that sub-tropical storm Andrea has now become tropical depression Andrea, thus converting from a cold core system to a warm core system. (Click on the image to enlarge it.)
The 11:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center will shed more light on this. Andrea’s future is in doubt, even as persistant of a little storm as she has been. Put simply, the odds are against her. If the NOGAPS and/or BAM models verify, then that would present Andrea with her best chance at survival. This mornings recon listed the wind speed at 39 knots which equals 44.85 (To figure it out the formula is: Knots X 1.15 = MPH)
Let’s hope that this is not an indication to what we are looking at this season.
Global models are currently coming together for a possible sub-tropical/tropical system forming off of the Carolinas’ coastlines. Data from Station 41001 – (150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS) eports seas at 36+ feet and sustained winds just under 40 knots with stronger gusts. NHC has a floater over the storm, and further review is underway.
At this time, this system poses no threat to the Gulf Coast region. Video of the rotation can be found here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
To be honest, this is a very unsual storm, and there could be the outside possibility that this becomes the first named storm of 2007.