Our staff at TSRC has run East Central Pacific surface sea temperature (SST) data and our info is in general agreement with other analysts. A slightly warmer SST (El Nino) will usually create conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, that is less favorable to the formation of strong storms. The El Nino trend through late spring 2019 may reduce the chances of strong storms forming, due to mid and upper level wind shear velocities that keep storms from intensifying. With that in mid, we will also point out that any long range SST projections past a few months, are nearly impossible.
While an El Nino condition can last for a few years, it can also last just a few weeks or months. Therefore, we are simply stating that the early part of the 2019 season in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, may be somewhat less intense than during the same time period in 2018.
As always, we are watching conditions carefully and will update this report if conditions change. We will also be back in Mid May with Hurricane Season Preparedness information.