Tropical Storm Colin formed in the mid Atlantic early this morning out of Tropical Depression # 4. Our track modeling is showing a mainly northwesterly path to the north of Jamaica and to the east of the Bahamas by this weekend. A fairly strong upper level low pressure area to the north of Tropical Storm Colin will introduce wind shear in the upper levels and will lessen the possibility of this storm from developing. The forward motion of Tropical Storm Colin is between 20 and 25 miles per hour, which is not allowing the storm to feed itself off the warm waters that it is traveling over and further reducing the possibility of development.
This storm will most likely remain a ‘fish storm’ – staying out over the Atlantic, as it takes it’s northerly swing off the US southeast and east coast after this weekend. There is one computer model showing a much farther westerly component to this storm and we will be watching the actual track closely. If the storm moves farther west, as a high pressure area over the US south moves easterly, there may be some storm interaction. This possibility could cause the storm to slow and to intensify, but that possibility at this time is not high.
For official updates and advisories please use the link below at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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