Dean – Category Three

Dean is now Cat 3, despite the light brush on Barbados, St. Lucie island is reporting 1 fatality, extensive roof damage and flooding. Dean appears to be in a Rapid Intensification cycle, and should attain Cat 4 status this evening or tonight.

The eyewall is in an ERC, and roughly 17 miles on the inner eye and 35 miles on the outer, meaning that this storm is growing in size much like Ivan or Katrina and less like Wilma, Rita, or Dennis.

Jamaica is on deck for a devasting hit. The low associated with Erin and the ULL over Florida are not behaving as expected, making modelling extremely difficult.

People in TX and LA should really watch this, as models are slowly trending eastward. GFDL has this approaching New Orleans.