In what proved to be a surprise to me, T.S. Beryl formed out of the sub-tropical low. Beryl picked up steam today, and could possibly make it to Catagory One status.
Beryl is looking better than Alberto was, but is facing an uphill battle in terms of strenghening. Most models have Beryl, at best, giving the east coast a glancing nod before rushing out to sea to play with the fishes.
Other developments are slow, there remains a wave near the Cape Verde islands that could develop, and some disorganization near the Bahamas. Neither of those is expected to develop over the next few days as shear remains strong.
I still maintain that this year should be another strong year, but it is shaping up to more closely resemble 2004’s season as opposed to the craziness of last year.
For us, in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, things are calm. Scattered thundershowers remain in our forecast, but no significant activity in the near future.
I will expect more Gulf of Mexico systems to spin up in August, and through the fall.