7/15/06 – Tropical Update

Our New Best Friend
The Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet. We had an a couple of systems that had an ouside chance of forming, one off the western coast of Florida and the other near the Carribean Sea. Our new best friends, the ULL and shear squashed any chance those systems had for development. There remains an extra-tropical system near the Carolinas, but it stands no chance to develop into more than a few scattered showers.

EPAC (The eastern Pacific) is active, with one Hurricane (Carollotta) and T.S. Bud. A Tropical Depression is also forming. Fortunately, none of those pose a threat to anything other than the rogue fish or two.

There is a distubance near the Cape Verde islands that very well could develop over the next weak or so, and at this time, I feel that it has a strong chance of becoming “Beryl”, our next storm.

The more things change…
The more they stay the same. The shear will be moving on all too soon, and we will be seeing increased activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) and general dynamics aside from the ULL (Upper Level Low) and shear are quite condusive for development. However, I would be surpised if we see anything before the end of July for our area. Of course, with the tropics, things can change on a dime.