Category: Discussion

The 2019 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season has not produced any named storms since June 01. If this inactivity continues into early July, a record could be set for the longest duration without Tropical activity. We hope that this trend continues, but none the less, we are monitoring the usual formation locations and will report any activity as needed.

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Subtropical Storm Andrea formed from a series of low pressure areas southwest of Bermuda. This storm will be moving to the north and then northeast away from the US East Coast over the next week or so. Since this named storm will not be affecting the USA, this will be our only mention of subtropical storm Andrea.

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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In keeping with our policy of providing seasonal Tropical Storm and Hurricane preparedness information, please use the link below for valuable pre-season preparedness information as supplied by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The 2019 Atlantic basin season runs from June 1 to November 30 and now is the time to review procedures so you can be prepared and to keep your family safe.

https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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The list of Hurricane names for 2019 is out, and is as follows:

The upcoming season, which starts on June 1, 2019, is expected to be less active than 2018.

Our staff at TSRC has run East Central Pacific surface sea temperature (SST) data and our info is in general agreement with other analysts. A slightly warmer SST (El Nino) will usually create conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, that is less favorable to the formation of strong storms. The El Nino trend through late spring 2019 may reduce the chances of strong storms forming, due to mid and upper level wind shear velocities that keep storms from intensifying. With that in mid, we will also point out that any long range SST projections past a few months, are nearly impossible.

While an El Nino condition can last for a few years, it can also last just a few weeks or months. Therefore, we are simply stating that the early part of the 2019 season in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, may be somewhat less intense than during the same time period in 2018.

As always, we are watching conditions carefully and will update this report if conditions change. We will also be back in Mid May with Hurricane Season Preparedness information.

This season is ending on November 30, 2018. The volunteer staff at The Tropical Storm Research center appreciates the comments and support that we have received from our viewers.  This season’s storms have been as destructive as we have seen in recent years and we are keeping all victims and their families in our thoughts and prayers.

We will continue to observe storm formations in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico well into December 2018, but we are not anticipating much additional activity.

We will be back in early May, 2019, with season projections and preparedness information. In the mean time, please feel free to use the LINK located in our Blog section to get interactive information on INLAND storms in the US.

Thank you.

The Tropical Storm Research Center volunteer staff.

Special Weather Statement for Thursday, November 8 through Saturday, November 10 – Upper Midwest and Plains.

While we do not usually send out unofficial advisories for INLAND storms, this situation is such that we are mentioning this for our viewer safety.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for parts of Northeastern Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, now through early Saturday. Snow, heavy at times, is anticipated in the areas mentioned with 4 to 7 inches likely. Lesser amounts can be expected to the south of the warning areas with 1 to 3 inches possible. There is also a possibility of some snow in Missouri and Arkansas over the next 2-1/2 days in areas where snow is not usually seen this time of the year.

In keeping with our TSRC policy of at least mentioning all storms that are named by the National Hurricane Center, Named Storm Oscar formed in the central Atlantic  from a low pressure area. This storm may make hurricane status but will be moving generally north and northeast away from US Coastal areas and will not be a threat to the US east coast. This will be our only mention of Named Storm Oscar.

For official information on all named storms, please visit the National Hurricane Center site located here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Hurricane Michael will go into down in weather history as one of the most powerful and devastating Hurricanes on record for a United States Landfall.
The lowest barometric pressure was recorded at 919 mb (27.14 in) just before landfall near Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach, Florida, on Wednesday, October 10, mid day… the third lowest pressure on record for an Atlantic basin Hurricane.   Winds were measured at 155+ MPH with gusting to 176 MPH before the measuring equipment was destroyed. The storm surge in many locations to the east of the eye was between 10 and 14 feet with 25 to 35 foot waves on top of that.

First responders have been making progress in their search and rescue efforts but we fear that the death toll will increase as inaccessible areas are finally reached.

Our volunteer staff at TSRC is keeping all victims of this catastrophic hurricane in our thoughts and prayers.