Sleep well…

The tropics are very quiet right now. The remnants of T.S. Chris are still lingering, but at this point there is no sign of convection. There is an Invest near the Carribean, but at this point, any development would be severely curtailed by the ULL and shear.

So for today, and quite possibly the next few days, the tropics in the Atlantic remain as quiet as could be wished for.

There are systems that the professionals and even little ol’ me will be watching, but for now the most eventful thing in the Gulf of Mexico as it pertains to us remains a very silly toddler I saw running from the waves at the Orange Beach pavilion and giggling like all get out. Her laughter filled the air as she played in the waves and spray. One wave rolled her over, and her mother’s eyes were as large as saucers, but as even as many on that part of the beach became concerned that the noises coming from her were from fear, we realized that she was laughing so hard that she could barely catch her breath.

This is the Paradise Island that we all know and love.

T.S. Chris weakening fast

Chris lost his battle with the shear and ULL, and now will probably weaken to a Tropical Depression this evening. While there is always a chance that he could “spin back up” in the Gulf, indications now are that he will dissipate.

However, the next 24 hours could be dramatic if some of the factors weaken Chris change.

Elsewhere the Atlantic is fairly quiet, there is a wave near the Cape Verde islands, but this time of year it seems like there is always a wave coming off the coast of Africa.

I’ll continue monitoring Chris and update as needed, but at this time, it looks like the three factors in my earlier posting are doing a nice job of killing his potential for growth.

Topical Storm Chris – 8/1/06

As you know, we now have Tropical Storm Chris. Initial tracks show this storm being a possible threat to southern Florida. This storm formed out of a tropical wave that is impressive in it’s resistance to the shear and dry air that has been combating it all week.

For now, it is a small, compact storm like Dennis of last year. I do not see enough steering currents to keep it out of the gulf at this moment, but it could beat itself to death over the islands and possibly southern Florida.

This will be an interesting storm to watch, especially that if it can survive long enough to make it to the fertile waters of the Gulf of Mexico, some “explosive” strengthening seems to be a certainty.

Some models are showing a long term path similar to storms we had last year, but I feel it is much to soon to start worrying in the Gulf Coast region. Chris has his plate full with:

1) Shear
2) Dry Air
3) Possible Land Masses

Having said that, those with interest in Southern Florida should begin preparations for the possibility of tropical storm to (remote at this point) hurricane conditions.

Sadly, for the first time THIS season, I must encourage all readers to take heed of the following statement:

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.