Tropical Update – Dean and Erin

Tropical Storm Dean continues to intensify, and is moving on a WNW pattern. If this trajectory holds, landfall could be anywhere from Central America to the Texas/Mexico border. The NHC is calling for it to reach Catagory Four status in 120 hours.

A recon flight is scheduled for tommorrow and that will greatly enhance the ability to forecast possible paths. At the last visible sat image from today, it appears to be forming an eyewall. I would not be surprised to find Dean listed as a Hurricane sometime tonight or tommorrow.

Tropical Storm Erin still has Texas as “tap dead center”. She has strengthened some, but is not expected to reach hurricane status before landfall sometime tommorrow. Her biggest threat will be rain and the associated flooding. Surge and tidal activity should be fairly minor with this system.

TD 5 – Now Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical Depression 5 has formed and appears to have taken aim at the Texas coast. UPDATE: The NHC has classified the system as Tropical Storm Erin.

There is a good chance that this depression could become Tropical Storm Erin later today or in the morning. While being a rainmaker, this system also brings the possibility of flooding. The good news is that it appears TD5 will not have much time to marinate in the warm waters of the Gulf.
UPDATE: The system could intensify, but as noted above, there is not much time for the system before it makes landfall in the Texas region. Models are shifting slightly south, closer to Mexico.

Tropical Storm Dean

Tropical Storm Dean continues to churn westward across the Atlantic and appears destined to be the season’s first Atlantic Hurricane. A recon flight is scheduled for tommorrow. The satellite imagery has Dean looking good, albeit with some “pacific” characteristics, but the shear is lessening as he moves into warmer waters. Early (and at this point unreliable) indications have this system entering the Gulf of Mexico. If I had to hazard a guess, I would put landfall somewhere between Texas and the MS/AL border. That guess is really based on Dean’s track being somewhat similar to Frederick. Anyone from the East Coast to the Gulf Coast should watch this. Predictions as far out as 10 days are next to impossible, so at this point my advice would be to check your supplies and keep an eye on the storm.

Hurricane Flossie is starting to weaken and looks to miss the Hawiian islands by a couple of hundred miles to the south.
Invest 91L in the Western Carribean is still showing signs of life, and still seems destined to become Tropical Depression Five and possible T.S. Erin before making landfall in Texas.

Tropical Depression Four

Tropical Depression Four has formed, and early model runs indicate that this system could have an impact in the Gulf of Mexico.

Again, it remains early in the track of this storm to assume anything, but most models bring this system to a major hurricane with possible impact in the Gulf of Mexico by next week.

Areas from Cape Hatteras N.C., to Brownsville, TX could be the target for this system if the models verify. Right now the money would be the lower Gulf of Mexico, and once in the Carribean, we should be a better feel as to where landfall might occur.

Elsewhere, there is a tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico (Invest 91L). This could become Tropical Depression Number Five as conditions continue to be favorable for some additional development. NHC and model runs are putting this at a Tropical Depression by later today, with a recon flight scheduled tommorrow, if necessary.

Further development of this system should be slow once past the TD stage. Early model runs put this system into the Texas area, primarily as a rain-maker.

All indications are that this will remain a weak system, but could reach Tropical Storm strength over the next 48 hours or so. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, there are several other small tropical waves and significant development is not anticipated for any of those at the time of this writing.

Impact for Gulf Shores/Orange Beach

Initial impact from these systems with be from Invest 91L, which should slightly elevate the surf and increase shore winds. Depending on the ultimate direction and shape of Tropical Depression Four, we have an outside chance of experiencing tropical conditions by the end of next week.

NOTICE: This is an UNOFFICIAL discussion. For official information, look to products from your local and federal authorities, the National Hurricane Center, and the National Weather Service.

Invest 90L – TD4


Invest 90L in the Atlantic is expected to become Tropical Depression Number Four later today or tonight. Some models are already calling this TD4. The two most likely events for this storm at this early point are for it to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane (possibly a major hurricane) and it does appear to have the potential to threaten the mainland United States.

The GFS model brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico, while other models hit at an East Coast strike. There is not much in the way to impede development or the westward motion of the storm. Over the next couple of days we should get a better picture as to the possible track and intensity of this system.

Dr. Jeff Masters anticipates tropical storm/hurricane conditions in the Lesser Antilles as early as Thursday, and he favors the GFS model which brings this system into the Gulf of Mexico. As always, with these long tracking storms, there is a huge margin for error this early into the game.

Yet Another Area of Interest

The models are showing formation in the Carribean by Tuesday, the NHC states that slow development of a low pressure system in the Carribean Sea is likely over the next few days.

If this does occur, this would present the first real Gulf of Mexico threat for the 2007 Hurricane Season.

The official report:

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007

…LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND…

REGARDING ITS POSITION…THE 00Z/12Z NAM ARE QUITE SIMILAR BY
13/12Z…HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN APPEARS A BIT MORE BULLISH
SPINNING THIS SYSTEM UP AND IS TRENDING DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN.

Area of Interest

The low that brought much of the region rain over the past few days has moved off shore and is showing signs of rotation.

The NHC is planning a recon flight into the low to ensure that we do not end up staring at another Charley. The 18z NAM shows this becoming an Alabama system, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the coastal areas.

Right now, the jury is out on whether it becomes a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. You can see it here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html. The image above is a still image of the visible satellite loop. A personal, and most definately not a professional assesment suggests that while this Low Pressure System could become a tropical storm over the next 48 hours, chances are it will remain a simple rain maker for much of the central coastal areas.
Elsewhere, Invest 99L recon flight is complete, and there is no closed rotation or vortex message, which means this systems remains a tropical wave and NOT a tropical depression. Some improvement of Invest 99L is possible over the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Chantal is still chugging merrily north and not doing much more and startling a rogue fish or two.