All posts by Tommy Cason

Certified Storm Spotter, Software Engineer

T.S. Chris weakening fast

Chris lost his battle with the shear and ULL, and now will probably weaken to a Tropical Depression this evening. While there is always a chance that he could “spin back up” in the Gulf, indications now are that he will dissipate.

However, the next 24 hours could be dramatic if some of the factors weaken Chris change.

Elsewhere the Atlantic is fairly quiet, there is a wave near the Cape Verde islands, but this time of year it seems like there is always a wave coming off the coast of Africa.

I’ll continue monitoring Chris and update as needed, but at this time, it looks like the three factors in my earlier posting are doing a nice job of killing his potential for growth.

Topical Storm Chris – 8/1/06

As you know, we now have Tropical Storm Chris. Initial tracks show this storm being a possible threat to southern Florida. This storm formed out of a tropical wave that is impressive in it’s resistance to the shear and dry air that has been combating it all week.

For now, it is a small, compact storm like Dennis of last year. I do not see enough steering currents to keep it out of the gulf at this moment, but it could beat itself to death over the islands and possibly southern Florida.

This will be an interesting storm to watch, especially that if it can survive long enough to make it to the fertile waters of the Gulf of Mexico, some “explosive” strengthening seems to be a certainty.

Some models are showing a long term path similar to storms we had last year, but I feel it is much to soon to start worrying in the Gulf Coast region. Chris has his plate full with:

1) Shear
2) Dry Air
3) Possible Land Masses

Having said that, those with interest in Southern Florida should begin preparations for the possibility of tropical storm to (remote at this point) hurricane conditions.

Sadly, for the first time THIS season, I must encourage all readers to take heed of the following statement:

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.

Compared to last year…

We are off to a great start. By this time last year, we had already endured Dennis and were staring down the barrell of more storms.

For reference, the following are the names and landfalls (if any) for this year:

Alberto (Tropical Storm – U.S. Florida)
Beryl (Tropical Storm – U.S. NE Seaboard)
Chris (Tropical Storm – UNKNOWN)

None of the names sound all that terrible, except maybe Rafael, then again, the name Katrina did not exactly inspire fear until her power was known (see the blog entry Katrina).

The next week looks to be pretty quiet in the tropics, as development is not expected.

Beryl – Update 7/19/2006

Beryl (Pronounced like BERLE) is slowly intensifying. Winds are at roughly 50mph and the storm looks as if it could threaten areas between Cape Cod/Martha’s Vineyard Mass., up to New York city.

Still, not much more intensification is expected, but earlier confidence that this storm would simply go out to sea is now fading.

Tropical Storm Beryl

In what proved to be a surprise to me, T.S. Beryl formed out of the sub-tropical low. Beryl picked up steam today, and could possibly make it to Catagory One status.

Beryl is looking better than Alberto was, but is facing an uphill battle in terms of strenghening. Most models have Beryl, at best, giving the east coast a glancing nod before rushing out to sea to play with the fishes.

Other developments are slow, there remains a wave near the Cape Verde islands that could develop, and some disorganization near the Bahamas. Neither of those is expected to develop over the next few days as shear remains strong.

I still maintain that this year should be another strong year, but it is shaping up to more closely resemble 2004’s season as opposed to the craziness of last year.

For us, in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, things are calm. Scattered thundershowers remain in our forecast, but no significant activity in the near future.

I will expect more Gulf of Mexico systems to spin up in August, and through the fall.

7/15/06 – Tropical Update

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The Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico remain quiet. We had an a couple of systems that had an ouside chance of forming, one off the western coast of Florida and the other near the Carribean Sea. Our new best friends, the ULL and shear squashed any chance those systems had for development. There remains an extra-tropical system near the Carolinas, but it stands no chance to develop into more than a few scattered showers.

EPAC (The eastern Pacific) is active, with one Hurricane (Carollotta) and T.S. Bud. A Tropical Depression is also forming. Fortunately, none of those pose a threat to anything other than the rogue fish or two.

There is a distubance near the Cape Verde islands that very well could develop over the next weak or so, and at this time, I feel that it has a strong chance of becoming “Beryl”, our next storm.

order Pregabalin online The more things change…
The more they stay the same. The shear will be moving on all too soon, and we will be seeing increased activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) and general dynamics aside from the ULL (Upper Level Low) and shear are quite condusive for development. However, I would be surpised if we see anything before the end of July for our area. Of course, with the tropics, things can change on a dime.


Have you ever noticed how, even after a recent disaster, people felt immune? It is almost like we are teenagers, and thus, in our own minds, invulnerable. We witnessed the horrors visited on those who stayed for Camille, and spawned a rumor that those that died were having a “hurricane party” and all but said, “They deserved it”.

Then we have years of complacency, and it happens again. This time named Fredrick. Now of course, the toll on human losses was much less than Camille, but the property losses, human suffering, and grief were tremendous. Again there was an outpouring of sympathy for those affected, and an under-current of, “well, they should not have stayed…”

Miami, the city of a million dreams, received a wake up call in the name of Andrew. Massive destruction, loss of life, and abject terror reigned. We all sat in awe as we watched the footage of houses (or their remains) spray painted with insurance policy numbers and ROE numbers (Right of Entry). We were stunned as the inland damage looked more like footage from a twister in Oklahoma, not a hurricane in beautiful southern Florida. Months after Andrew, I was in Miami on business. On the 23rd floor of a high-rise, I watched the sky darken; fat drops of rain began to fall. The wind howled, and the sky exploded into cascading sheets of rain, the air scorched by explosions of lightning and thunder. Three of the local ladies who were working, stared out the window as if they saw the Grim Reaper. One fell to the floor moaning, another, in a tremulous voice said, “A hurricane, I did not hear about a hurricane”, and the other lady almost made it to the restroom as she threw up. It was only a severe storm. But the fear remained.

Weather science has become much more precise and gives us more warning than ever before. Even so, there are large errors that can occur. One such error was named Opal. While the damage in the coastal areas of Alabama and Florida were considerable, the damage well inland was catastrophic. Tornados, flooding, straight line winds, and incredible losses across the board sang their songs well into the days after landfall.

One almost thinks there is a lesson to be learned, and the obvious lesson is really not it. One may think that any who live on barrier islands like our beloved Gulf Shores should give the island back to the sea and wind. One may think that any who lives in shaking Los Angeles should give the city back to rocks and fires. One may think that any who lives under the shadows of Washington’s or any other volcanoes should give the land back to the ashes and lava.

The fact is we love our homes, our location, and our way of life. For many of us, each storm makes our resolve that much firmer. I challenge anyone to find me a person in Gulf Shores, L.A., Hawaii, and so on who is not acutely aware of the potential for catastrophe.

Enter Ivan. Over a million evacuated the Gulf Coast, and many stayed. Of those that stayed, the terror and devastation of this night storm was unlike many others. That fear has held true even today. Many friends of mine who live in the Pensacola and Milton areas swore “Never again”, they recounted the tales we have all heard; doorbells ringing incessantly into the night as the wind pressed the button, strange shuddering sounds and a feeling of vertigo, resting against a wall and feeling it vibrate like a tuning fork, the noise of the wind entering between window and door seams and sounding like a badly played trombone and occasionally sounding like a chord from the skies, climbing to the attic to escape the water only to find that the water beat them there, and the list goes on.

Since Ivan, even the mention of a hurricane or tropical storm sends people in Pensacola, Milton, and Navarre Beach into a panic. They snatch up gas, pack their cars, and almost seem poised to take off like racers at the starting line.

Dennis. People from Gulf Shores to Pensacola watched him like hawks. Bags were packed, reservations made, plywood once again adorned windows like obscene decorations. Being a compact, strong, and fast storm, all predictions, models, and forecasting essentially went out the window. Landfall estimates as late as 8 hours to landfall swung like a pendulum from the Alabama/Mississippi line to Panama City. 4 hours to landfall, and the majority of the professional and amateur forecasters (including this one) started screaming “right up Mobile Bay as a Cat FOUR!!!” Landfall occurred at Navarre Beach as a very weak Category Two with an extremely small wind field. The vast sigh of relief generated almost as much energy as the Labor Day hurricane of 1935.
This hurricane-on-a-half-shell fooled nearly everyone in speed, size, and destination.

Meanwhile, the Gulf of Mexico waters continued to warm. Several noticed, and alarms went off in the minds of those who, while already shocked at the record breaking season of 2005, began to look ahead to the “peak” of the Hurricane Season.

The fear that was in Miami had long since faded, though Pensacola remained in shock from Ivan. The first taste of disaster was but a few scant days away.

A disturbance that only weather enthusiasts and meteorologists paid any attention to was spinning up due east of Miami. Katrina was born amid little notice or concern. She marched towards Miami and Southern Florida with determination, and was met with jeers. This cute little tropical storm with a cute little name would bring some showers. Big deal. Just before landfall, she tried to make her intentions known, intensifying to a Category One storm. Even then, as she quickly became Killer Katrina by dropping trees on occupied vehicles, many weather outlets declared ON AIR that she would weaken to a tropical depression before leaving Florida. Those in the Keys as far south as Key West saw no need of concern.

For what seemed like a few scant hours, Killer Katrina did weaken to a tropical storm, but as she tasted the warm, enticing waters of the Gulf of Mexico, she began to strengthen. She strengthened OVER LAND. Key West rapidly discovered that these “rain bands” were in fact her outer edge and became inundated with water. Talk of evacuation surfaced, but it was too late. Many began to realize the size and fury of what they thought of as “Kitten Katrina”.

Killer Katrina entered the Gulf of Mexico with a vengeance. If this writer were a superstitious man, I would attest that she took offense to the nonchalance with which she was received at her first landfall and was determined to prove her point. She drank the moist air and bathed in the warm waters, sending large waves crashing from Panama City, Florida to Corpus Christi, Texas. Bay water levels began to rise.

Seasoned veterans of storms, from fishermen to “locals” felt something was bad wrong in the Gulf.

From New Orleans, Louisiana to Mobile, Alabama, many had the basic stance of, “Oh no, those poor people in Baldwin and Escambia Counties, they are going to get hit again.”

Killer Katrina strengthened into one of the most powerful storms in recorded history. Unbelievable low pressure, massive waves, sustained winds to rival the fiercest of tornados, and so she spun, moving ever slow, and taking aim.

The models and the media shifted their “cone of impact” left and right. Concern grew exponentially along the Gulf Coast, and almost like a sleeping giant, many in Mississippi “woke” to the threat.

Killer Katrina wobbled this way and that, and with her, so did the impact cone. When it was almost too late, she finally became kittenish. She wobbled one last time, much like a kitten getting ready to pounce on a non-assuming ball of paper, and then she leapt.

Instead of a purr and a meow, she roared across Pass Christian, Mississippi, her effects felt hundreds of miles in all directions. The loss of property was staggering, the loss of life, unfathomable. Even after her passing; as red, crying eyes turn once again to the seemingly placid waters of the Gulf, her full impact is yet unknown. But we do know this: From Europe to Asia, the entire world now understands no one is immune to disaster. For now.

Even Weak Storms

When facing monsters like Katrina, Ivan, Frederick, Camille, and even Opal with the devastation she wrought inland, it is easy to pass over the “weak” brothers and sisters who come calling.

A perfect example is what the newspaper out of Mobile, Alabama (the “Mobile Register”) dubbed “Serene Arlene”. This was a tropical storm that looked like a hurricane on a half-shell. There was no westward formation at all, the eye was all but non existent; yet she was determined to pay a visit to the battered Gulf Coast.

This first named storm of the 2005 Atlantic Season dropped a scant 6 inches of rain. As she rolled in, there was a reported gust of 60 miles per hour.

Arlene brought showers and not much else. Her winds were light, and the surge was weak. Even after her waters flooded the lobby of the condominium tower called Edgewater West, she was still a weak storm. Never mind the thousands of dollars in damage done to the pool from the constant push of sand. Never mind the cars shoved over a sand covered west beach road that more resembled snow drifts than sand dunes. She was not big.

It has to be a big storm. Only then do we all pay attention to the system and the effects.

Thomas Summerlin never had that luxury. Struck dead from what most of us would call a thundershower, he died instantly from a bolt of lightning. His stepson, Noah Butler, almost made it to South Baldwin Hospital where he was pronounced dead.

It was just a thunder shower. That shower left a woman widowed and her other children wondering “why”?

This weather that we all love so much, these storms that excite us; they are killers. Even, if not especially, the ones that pass under our radar. Think on this, every time we hear thunder, and every time we feel rain, we can be at grave risk. Even the most innocuous shower holds lethal results for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Of course, that will not stop me from chasing my storms, which will not stop the thrill in my heart when I see a super-cell system forming up. It will make me think, it will make me reflect. As much as I love strong systems, sometimes the weakest of them all make all the difference in our own worlds.


pop over to this website 2006 Hurricane Season

In the Atlantic Basin and (more to my own interests) the Gulf of Mexico, the 2006 Hurricane Season is off to a much slower start than last year. In the EPAC (Eastern PACific) the season is starting to move right along.

As do the other amatuer mets and professional mets, I remain firm that this will be yet another active year for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.

In the Gulf Shores area, hopefully we will be spared another direct hit. Ivan and last year’s Katrina gave us more than anyone could want, however, we remain in an active cycle.

As we start down the home stretch of this season, I and a few others, will use this space to make observations and provide you with what we hope to be life saving tips on what to do before, during, and after the storms.

You will see the following text many times on this blog, so please make a point of following it: In ANY disaster situation, refer to your local, state, and federal authorities when making decisions that can and will affect your life and property.

Note: The picture to the right was taken during landfall of Hurricane Ivan as it moved across Gulf Shores, Alabama. The radar image is of Ivan making landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama.

Each and every storm has its own characteristics such as the devastation of Katrina, the well inland damage from Opal, and the after effects of virtually all major storms.

A perfect example would be hurricane Rita. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach were well to the east of this storm, and yet the following footage was available:

(Notes from the time Rita’s approach from 2005)

sault ste marie dating sites Demonstration of a Hurricane’s Power

The wind and rain from the outter bands of Hurricane Rita provided some spectacular footage as evidenced in the photographs to the right.

At the time these photographs were taken, Rita was over 400 miles away from Gulf Shores and moving westward. The sheer amount of energy require to churn the Gulf of Mexico is incredible.
Locally, the Baldwin County area was under a flood warning for low lying areas.

Heavy rain and winds were not expected, although the elevated surf, while dangerous, was a sight to behold. As Rita marched across the Gulf of Mexico, residents in Gulf Shores and Orange beach kept a wary eye out for the possibility of outter bands.

Unlike the devastation wrought by Ivan and the destruction of Katrina, the Gulf Shores and Orange Beach areas certainly dodged a bullet from Rita. Texas was not so lucky. Even with the mininal impact that Rita posed to Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, the effects, in addition to being spectacular, cause erosion damage and some structural damage.

Those that live here, whether each day or each thought, remember the past storms and respect the future storms.

It is my sincere hope that you find this blog informative, entertaining, and above all, that you and yours remain safe.