Tropical Storm Chantal

purchase accutane (isotretinoin) The NHC has issued the following statement:

free dating online chat room russian SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSIONTHREE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF40 MPH…65 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANTAL IS LOCATED ABOUT 330MILES…530 KM…SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND IS MOVING RAPIDLYTOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH…37 KM/HR. CHANTAL IS NOT ATHREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

This storm is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico, obviously, but is indicative of the increased activity in the Atlantic Basin. Of more concern for us, albeit minor concern, is Invest 99L in the central atlantic. If this low pressure system develops and if it survives the dry air north of it, it could become the 4th named storm, Dean, of this year. Unfortunately, it could also present a threat to the Gulf of Mexico if it tracks further north.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, things are churning but on the whole all remains fairly quiet.

Atlantic waking up

find this The Atlantic Basin is beginning to show much more moisture and convection, and possible sign that the “lull” in the hurricane season is ending.

Many experts are suggesting that we could start seeing tropical systems form in the Atlantic as early as next week. Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are also beginning to become more favorable for storm development.
Currently, there are no significant areas of interest, but from accounts, that is likely to change over the next two weeks. When and if the tropics start flaring up, we will be in a better position to determine who is “under the gun”.

Weather Pattern Change

Dr. Jeff Masters made this observation:

“The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low
pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will
finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This
would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with
increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast
from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal
to above normal risk.”

What this means to us is that we will probably start seeing more activity in the tropics and should start seeing storms forming and/or entering the Gulf of Mexico towards the end of July and going into August. This does not mean that it’s going to be like 2005 in terms of shear numbers of storms, but the pattern is becoming more favorable for tropical systems.

Still Quiet in the Atlantic Basin

There is a tropical wave approaching the Bahamas that some models are expecting formation into a tropical system that would approach southern Florida on or around the 19th.

There are dry air masses ahead of and behind the tropical wave, so development will be tricky.
While the Atlantic remains fairly quiet, conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for development as we move towards August (the “meat” of our hurricane season).

I expect that the official season analysis will show a reduction in the number of predicted storms, however, I can all but guarantee you all that this season will NOT be as quiet as 2006 was. As always, I hope I am wrong.

Invest 92L – Carribean

The disturbance we discussed last week is still loitering around, now dubbed Invest 92L by the NHC. A recon flight is scheduled for June 1 at 2pm. This system could become a tropical depression by Saturday.

Right now, it appears that this system will become a much needed rain maker for the drought plagued state of Florida. At this time, I see no real threat to the Gulf Shores area and doubt that this system will become “Hurricane Barry”.

Of note, Hurricane Season has not begun, yet this is the third Atlantic Invest in less than a month. All data and modelling aside, that is very indicative of things to come.

Last year was an aberration, and I expect this year to see significant activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

The NGM Model at 48 hours does show some impact for the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area, but right now the risk of us experiencing tropical conditions remains marginal.

Tropical Depression Andrea?

As you can see, there is no consensus among the models. This storm is sloppy and disorganized, yet wind speeds are remaining consistant. Based on initial data this morning, it appears that sub-tropical storm Andrea has now become tropical depression Andrea, thus converting from a cold core system to a warm core system. (Click on the image to enlarge it.)

The 11:00am advisory from the National Hurricane Center will shed more light on this. Andrea’s future is in doubt, even as persistant of a little storm as she has been. Put simply, the odds are against her. If the NOGAPS and/or BAM models verify, then that would present Andrea with her best chance at survival. This mornings recon listed the wind speed at 39 knots which equals 44.85 (To figure it out the formula is: Knots X 1.15 = MPH)

Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea

Tropical Storm Andrea (sub-tropical) has formed, creating the first named storm of the 2007 season. A tropical storm watch has been issued for much of the lower east coast and portions of Florida. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the next 36 hours.
Models vary on possible impact locations and overall track of this storm. At this time the storm is not expected to intensify much further, but on the same coin, it was not expected to become our first named storm.

The official advisory follows:

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL0120071100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

…EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.COAST…SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICALCHARACTERISTICS.AT 11 AM EDT…1500 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUEDALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUNDGEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCHMEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCHAREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE…http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC…ml/091443.shtml

Invest 90.L Prompting Warnings

Invest 90.L which at this time is more of a hybrid between a “cold core” storm like a Nor’Easter and a “warm core” storm like a hurricane, is generating tropical storm conditions for parts of North and South Carolina and Georgia. Most of the Eastern Seaboard is experiencing high surf.

This storm is not yet considered subtropical, but the NHC has scheduled a hunter flight and it could be designated “Andrea” by tomorrow. The path of the storm as projected by UKMET (see graphic) could bring it into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

Invest 90.L — An Early Start

Let’s hope that this is not an indication to what we are looking at this season.

Global models are currently coming together for a possible sub-tropical/tropical system forming off of the Carolinas’ coastlines. Data from Station 41001 – (150 NM East of Cape HATTERAS) eports seas at 36+ feet and sustained winds just under 40 knots with stronger gusts. NHC has a floater over the storm, and further review is underway.

At this time, this system poses no threat to the Gulf Coast region. Video of the rotation can be found here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

To be honest, this is a very unsual storm, and there could be the order gabapentin online overnight outside possibility that this becomes the first named storm of 2007.

Information from the ground in the Gulf Shores area.