GulfStorm.net

HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY 07:15 Hrs CDT USA, 01 September 2008.

As our information suggested several days ago, Hurricane Gustav will be making landfall this morning near Morgan City, Louisiana at Catagory 3 levels.

‘Landfall’ in the weather community is defined as when the lowest pressure area of the storm crosses the coastline.

Persons in southern Alabama and Mississippi have been under tornado watches and warnings for the past 6 to 8 hours along with very heavy rains and gusty winds. Hurricane spawned tornados are usually much weaker than tornados which form in the Great Plains – usually not higher than EF-1, but can devastate local areas and buildings. The storm surge and wave action in the northeast quadrant (upper right area) of this hurricane is being felt along the southeastern sections of Louisiana and flooding is taking place in numerous areas. Wind gusts have been monitored at 64 MPH in New Orleans and at 86 MPH in Boothville, Louisiana and trees and power lines are going down throughout the region. High surf is being seen all the way to the Florida Panhandle this morning with tropical storm force winds.

Please use the first link below for Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings and data.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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HURRICANE GUSTAV UPDATE 15:30 Hrs CDT USA, 31 August 2008.

Hurricane Gustav has increased it’s forward speed to 17 MPH and is maintaining it’s strength at this hour. This means that the outer bands containing winds in excess of 39 MPH sustained will start being felt along the northern Gulf Coast as far as 200 miles from the storm center within 6 to 12 hours. Hurricane force winds within 60 to 100 miles of the center of rotation will be felt shortly thereafter.

Evacuations are progressing well in 4 states – Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

ANY PERSONS WHO ARE IN A MANDATORY EVACUATION AREA WHO HAVE NOT DONE SO, IT IS TIME FOR YOU TO LEAVE.

Law enforcement and local government officials in 4 states have said that anyone in a mandatory evacuation area who stays behind does so at their own peril. There will be NO rescue attempts to get you out. It is recommended for those persons who do stay behind to place a note in a waterproof bag in their inner pocket containing their name, address and next of kin so their remains can be identified and relatives notified.

We will post additional last minute details as conditions warrant. Until then, please use the first link below for Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings, coastal flooding potential and data.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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PLEASE review the details in Comment # 1 under Acral’s “Catagory Four” posting just below this entry.

Gustav is now Catagory FOUR hurricane with winds at 150mph, and higher gusts. Surge is near 18 feet, and Gustav is forecasted to grow stronger into a Category Five hurricane.

Landfall estimates still suggest Louisiana, near Morgan City, but the models can shift. The effects of this storm will be wide reaching, all persons along the Gulf Coast should closely monitor this storm.

HURRICANE GUSTAV General Update 05:00 Hrs CDT USA 30 August 2008.

Please note the header color change to RED indicating a potential threat to US life and property. Hurricane Gustav is a high Category 2 Hurricane and will most likely be a Major, Category 3 storm within hours. Central winds as reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft just minutes ago are at 110 MPH with gusting to near 135 MPH. This killer storm has already been responsible for nearly 100 lost lives in the Caribbean and with the development to Major status sometime today, that toll will increase as it passes near the western tip of Cuba.

Persons from Houston, Texas, to just east of Pensacola, Florida, are at risk. The center of the tracking projections places tentative landfall near Morgan City, Louisiana, late Monday into early Tuesday. This track may change, however, so please use the links below for hourly updates concerning Hurricane Gustav’s intensity, track and potential landfall locations. This is an extremely dangerous storm and everyone along the COASTAL areas mentioned above should have their properties secured, evacuation supplies ready to go and should be constantly monitoring the National Weather Service, NOAA and local media for regional updates and official orders from local government.

We are also monitoring Tropical Storm Hanna, but since it’s development is slow, we will concentrate mainly on Gustav at this time.

Use the first link below for Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings and data.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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HURRICANE GUSTAV Update 14:30 Hrs CDT 29 August 2008.

Gustav made Hurricane Category 1 force once again about an hour ago. It is located just southeast of the Cayman Islands and is strengthening by the hour.

Earlier track projections which place Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico as a Major Hurricane this weekend still holds true and eventual landfall somewhere along the US Gulf Coast between northeast Texas and the Florida Panhandle on Monday or Tuesday is also still on track.

Our next update will take place as conditions warrant. We are also tracking Tropical Storm Hanna and will update details of that storm once our track and strength projections are more defined.

Use the first link below for Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings and data.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

================================================== =======
“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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Above, we can see the wind field probabilities from both Gustav and Hanna. To say that the Southeastern United States is looking at the potential for a “one-two” punch would not be out of the question. For our area, models are tracking westward, for a potential hit in Lousiana, possibly near the Mississippi/Lousiana state border.

My personal models, after extrapolating data from NOAA and buoy data, strongly suggest a land fall in Lousiana, near the Mississippi border around late Monday to Tuesday. Gustav still has to traverse Jamaica and it’s brush with Cuba, and the models, including our own, could shift substantially. The potential for impact remains from the TX/LA border to just east of the AL/FL border. Anyone in this region should pay close attention to this system.

We will have a much better idea after this storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexco. As part of the NHC 11:00pm EDT discussion the following line is not encouraging for any in the path:

“HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR.”

The EURO model hints at 3 hits into Texas – Gustav, Hanna, and the next storm which would be Ike, but so far this season, the GFDL has been the most reliable, and this is not the long term solution provided.

Currently, we have many stearing mechanisms at play, and while the consensus remains for a northern Gulf Coast landfall, the exact landfall will remain difficult to estimate until Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico.

See the comments below Gary’s post—T.S. Hanna has formed in the Central Atlantic. Initial estimates suggest a potential threat to the east coast. I’ll have a more complete update on both systems later this afternoon.