This special weather statement is being provided by our analysis group as supplied by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, Thursday morning, September 25, 2008. Any persons with interests along the East Coast of the US please note:
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE… STRONG WINDS…COASTAL FLOODING…HIGH SURF…AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA…AND BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES…AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.
We would only add that this system could rapidly develop into a Tropical or Subtropical storm at any time. It is drawing energy from the warm Gulf Stream waters and is gathering core strength. We are also watching another low pressure area near Hispaniola that also has high potential for development with East Coast USA involvement in several days.
Please use the first link below for Tropical System information and the second link below for active watches, warnings and data.
“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
There is no tropical activity to speak of for now, although September tends to be the most active part of the season. According to Dr. Jeff Masters, we should have yet another named storm within the next 7 to 10 days, and that storm or storms could pose a threat to the East Coast and/or Gulf of Mexico after that.
Over the next month or two, the tropics should start winding down, which will bring much needed relief to stricken areas.
Hurricane Ike is making landfall near Galveston, Texas as a very strong catagory two Hurricane. 2.9 people are without power or reliable communications according to major news outlets.
There have been several rescues of people stranded, but there will be more time before the full impact of Ike is recognized. Some 24,000 people elected to remain on Galveston Island and our hopes and prayers go out to them as it will be 36 hours or more, before damage data can be processed.
Houston and areas well inland can expect hurricane force winds, tornadic activity, and torrential downpours.
As the eye of the storm passes over the Galveston area, the storm surge will continue to rise for a number of hours. Certain media personalities have attempted to make a mockery of this storm, and we are not impressed. Ike remains a credible threat for a number of hours along the western gulf coast, and especially Texas.
As data filters in, we will publish final damage reports from Hurricane Ike over the next few days.
Ike looks to be a catagory FOUR at landfall on the Texas coast. Ike is a huge storm and is strenghtening rapidly. The upper level trough is wreaking havoc with the forecasts, and could push Ike into Louisiana.
For our area, odds are against us getting a direct hit, but sadly, that is not outside of the realm of possibility. Gulf Shores and Orange Beach should expect periods of tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions as Ike makes his final move inland at or near Texas.
Surge is expected to be in excess of 18 feet with winds as high as 150mph at landfall. Our area can expect seas to be 3-8 feet above normal, coastal flooding, and winds 25 to 50mph. Isolated tornados and severe thunderstorms could begin as early as tomorrow night.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PROJECTED PATH OF IKE LEAVE NOW. Hurricane Ike is a VERY DANGEROUS storm, and the loss of life and property is almost a certainty. Tropical Storm force winds are well over 200 miles from the center of Ike. ALL PERSONS ALONG THE GULF COAST should monitor Ike closely.
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Hurricane Ike has weakened to a Catagory ONE storm as the mountains of Cuba continue to shred him.
At the time of this writing, all models are in agreement that Ike’s final landfall will be along the Texas coast. The latest recon reported:
AT 200 AM EDT…0600Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BYCUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.5WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE ZAPATA PENINSULA AND ABOUT 95 MILES…150KM…SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.THE METEOROLOGICAL CENTER IN CASABLANCA HAVANA JUSTREPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 62 MPH…100 KM/HR. SAND KEYAUTOMATIC STATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTEDSUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH…80 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 67 MPH…107KM/HR.
The interaction with Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. ALL models point westward for Ike, and for our area that is a good thing. Things can and do change. Please stay ready to take any action required to protect your life and property.
We will be presenting a more in-depth instruction on hurricane preparedness very soon, but at this time, due to the possibility of Hurricane IKE being a Gulf Storm by Tuesday, September 09, we would just like to list several things to do that are at the top of the preparedness list.
Most important is awareness. This includes monitoring your local media and the National Weather Service and their Alert Radio Stations for information about Tropical Systems that can potentially affect your area of residence. Being prepared to evacuate when the orders are given by local Emergency Government Officials is critical to your safe travel out of the area.
Things to do: Motor vehicles should be in proper mechanical shape with a full fuel tank and good quality tires when there is even a hint of trouble heading your way. Place the following items in heavy duty weathertight storage bags with waterproof labels on each – Enough cash to last 10 days away from your residence. Cell phones, chargers and extra batteries. Prescription medication that your family members need and a well stocked first aid kit. Your important documents and papers that can not be replaced. All keys for your vehicles, home, office, safe deposit box and your properties. Family photos that can not be replaced. Bottled drinking water in your vehicle – 1 gallon per person per day while on the road out of the evacuation area. Three ‘energy bars’ per day for each person in your vehicle. Toilet tissue. Three changes of clothing for each person as well as extra shoes. Raincoats for each person with you. A flashlight for each person with you. Portable battery powered broadcast radio and a portable National Weather Service Radio with extra batteries for both.
Most shelters now accept pets or can make arrangement for pet care. According to FEMA guidlines, take your pets with you and enough food and water for their trip plus 5 to 7 days confinement. Before you leave your residence, board up the windows and doors as suggected by your local Emergency Government. Empty your refrigerator and freezer of perishable food items. Turn off your natural or LP gas. Turn off your electrical panel main breaker. Turn off your water at the meter or ground connection to your home.
When you hear the evacuation orders, leave immediately and follow the marked Evacuation Routes as mentioned in the orders. Do NOT make your own shortcuts because if you have an accident, law enforcement and rescue may not be able to get to you OFF of the established routes.
We wish for everyone to remain safe in the face of these terrible storms. The lessons learned during Hurricane Katrina should be a wakeup call for everyone who lives in a hurricane prone area. Prepare ahead of time, have a family plan and when the evacuation orders are given – LEAVE !
More information to follow soon. Thank you.