Month: July 2007

The NHC has issued the following statement:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSIONTHREE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF40 MPH…65 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHANTAL IS LOCATED ABOUT 330MILES…530 KM…SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND IS MOVING RAPIDLYTOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH…37 KM/HR. CHANTAL IS NOT ATHREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

This storm is no threat to the Gulf of Mexico, obviously, but is indicative of the increased activity in the Atlantic Basin. Of more concern for us, albeit minor concern, is Invest 99L in the central atlantic. If this low pressure system develops and if it survives the dry air north of it, it could become the 4th named storm, Dean, of this year. Unfortunately, it could also present a threat to the Gulf of Mexico if it tracks further north.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, things are churning but on the whole all remains fairly quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters made this observation:

“The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low
pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will
finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This
would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with
increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast
from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal
to above normal risk.”

What this means to us is that we will probably start seeing more activity in the tropics and should start seeing storms forming and/or entering the Gulf of Mexico towards the end of July and going into August. This does not mean that it’s going to be like 2005 in terms of shear numbers of storms, but the pattern is becoming more favorable for tropical systems.

There is a tropical wave approaching the Bahamas that some models are expecting formation into a tropical system that would approach southern Florida on or around the 19th.

There are dry air masses ahead of and behind the tropical wave, so development will be tricky.
While the Atlantic remains fairly quiet, conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for development as we move towards August (the “meat” of our hurricane season).

I expect that the official season analysis will show a reduction in the number of predicted storms, however, I can all but guarantee you all that this season will NOT be as quiet as 2006 was. As always, I hope I am wrong.