Dr. Jeff Masters made this observation:
“The long-range GFS model continues to forecast that the persistent trough of low
pressure that has been present over the Eastern U.S. the past two months will
finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure by late July. This
would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with
increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast
from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal
to above normal risk.”What this means to us is that we will probably start seeing more activity in the tropics and should start seeing storms forming and/or entering the Gulf of Mexico towards the end of July and going into August. This does not mean that it’s going to be like 2005 in terms of shear numbers of storms, but the pattern is becoming more favorable for tropical systems.
Tropical information for the Coast, by the Coast,