Month: August 2006

Ernesto is now well inland. He has proven to be all but impossible to track as the models had him everywhere from Mexico to the “Big Bend” of Florida befire he struck Cuba, and subsequently, Southern Florida this evening.

Part of the fault lies in that a tropical storm can and does change centers of rotation which is what we use to determine not only the path, but the possible intensity.

After the calamities of Katrina, Rita, and Ivan, perhaps all of us are jumping a bit fast trying to predict the unpredictable.

Taking a deep breath, and a sigh of relief, many are fortunate tonight. The tropical conditions, upon initial reports, from Haiti and Cuba are nowhere near as bad as they could have been and have been in the past. Miami and the general southern Florida areas have experienced worse thunderstorms than the conditions they are facing now. Flooding, especially in the form of flash floods remain a very real and lethal threat from Ernesto, but catastrophic damage is not in the forecast.

Ernesto will emerge into the Atlantic, assuming he survives his visit to Florida, and could preset hurricane conditions to the Carolinas. At this point, I feel that we should wait and see.

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Elsewhere we have a pair of waves in the Central Atlantic that could become something. One of the 300+ GFDL model runs again puts a little prize in the Gulf of Mexico within the next couple of weeks, but as we are seeing this season, the long term model runs are not verifying.

Of note, the Pacific Storm Ioke has a classic satellite formation and is one of the strongest storms I have seen. At one point sustained winds were 160mph, with gust up to 196mph. Wow. Super Typhoon Ioke appears to pose no threat to land.

I, like many others, feel great relief that Ernesto is about as minimal as he can be given the potential that lay before that storm. However, I urge you not to be lulled, as the SST’s in the GoM remain high, conditions for cyclonic activity are improving. We are in the middle of our hurricane season and still have a long way to go.

From initial reports, Haiti has been spared the destruction they endured last year from flooding. Tropical Storm Ernesto is now trying to beat itself to death over Cuba and will likely weaken to a Tropical Depression today.

Ernesto will enter the Gulf of Mexico and if he survives his trek through Hispaniola, he will regain hurricane status. Florida still looks to be under the gun by this system, but at this time, it is worthy to mention that Ernesto could very well dissipate over Cube before emerging into the Florida Strait.

The threat remains across the Gulf of Mexico, as there is always the potential for errors in modeling and tracking GoM systems.

This hurricane is undergoing rapid intensification, and models have shifted it east.

The Florida peninsula appears t0 be under the gun at the moment.

I must urge all in the cone of this storm to begin preparations to secure life and property. This is an extremely dangerous environment.

The NHC Advisory quotes:

BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK
WERE REQUIRED…UNFORTUNATELY…FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE
ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE IS FORMING AND
MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT…WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62 KT SURFACE WINDS…SO ERNESTO IS VERY
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE EYE IS SO SMALL…HOWEVER…THAT THE FLIGHT CREW
HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON
THE SYSTEM NOW…AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.

The tracks and models continue to show an easterly movement, however, until this system emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, a definative track is all but impossible to deliver.

The new models, even the NHC models are slinging around again. This time South to Mid FL peninsula is under the gun.

With a system like this, there is no definative answer at this point until we have a solid center. Even then, there are variances. There is the lingering Low Pressure System off the Atlantic Coast of Georgia that appears to be making a play.

If this new track verifies, then we in the Gulf Shores and Orange Beach areas can happily sound the “all clear”.

However, I expect the system to track more westward, and models to reflect that over the next 24 hours.

As more datat becomes available, I will update.

Ernesto has slightly strengthened, but is encountering shear. The models vary, 2 showing him nearly dissipating by Monday and others showing a major hurricane striking the area around the Florida Panhandle.

The NHC track, (see graphic), does not bode well for our location, but as we have discussed, Ernesto has to combat shear and some land masses before he emerges into the warm Gulf waters.

Based on the data so far, it looks as if we will be facing a “Labor Day Weekend” storm, but the intensity and exact location remain unknown. At the time of this writing the NHC is preparing another advisory.

Regretfully, I am in complete agreement with the NHC track at this time, (with a slight nudge to the east) and UNOFFICIALLY estimate landfall of this system between Dauphin Island, AL and Panama City, FL early Saturday morning.

Having said that, this system does present a few notes:

1. It is not in the Gulf of Mexico and still remains in danger of dissapating.
2. Mexico to Louisiana are not out of the woods as the system remains vulnerable to steering currents.

Debby
Of note, Debby has weakened to a Tropical Depression, and still presents no threat to land.

THESE UPDATES AND ADVISORIES ARE UNOFFICIAL. They are based upon information from our own computer models, the NOAA Hurricane Predictions Center and their local weather stations and buoys, plus OFFICIAL press releases from local and State Government offices in the affected areas. For COMPLETE and OFFICIAL UPDATES, please monitor your local Emergency Government Broadcasts on local radio and TV and follow their instructions to the letter. Do not make personal safety decisions based upon the information that is provided here.

This will be a short entry, as we are essentially in a holding pattern. Ernesto is battling with some shear but should emerge into the gulf this weekend.

Rapid intensification is entirely possible once it reaches the central GoM, and the models are still slinging it everywhere from right here to Mexico to Florida.

Once the system, or what is left of it, emerges from the Caribbean, we will get a much better idea of it’s path.

For now, I feel we are looking from Texas to our neck of the woods, but this can change and probably will.

Tropical Depression #5 formed today, and nearly all of the models agree on this becoming Tropical Storm Ernesto and entering the Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days.

Early indications are that this storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico, possibly weaken then re-intensify once in the Gulf. There is some significant shear to the north of the storm, but it is expect to move west ahead of the storm, possibly reducing any impact.

All areas in the Gulf of Mexico should monitor this storm carefully. Early estimates (guesses in fact) would put this storm making final landfall somewhere between north Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana. There is an outside chance that the storm could recurve north and pose a threat to the Mississippi/Alabama coastal areas, or with a hard turn east, the Florida Panhandle. Now I know how that sounds, “so the storm could hit anywhere from Mexico to Florida…” Texas being the likely candidate right now, but the following line is very true:

At this point, it is much too soon to make landfall predictions.

There is also a good chance that the storm could beat itself to death over eastern Cuba which is a very mountainous terrain, or dip further south and crash into the Yukitan Peninsula before emerging into the gulf.

The next NHC advisory is at 11pm EDT, and barring a special advisory prior to that time, I’ll update this blog later tonight or Friday morning.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Debby is chugging along and is forecast to become Hurricane Debby in the next couple of days. Debby only poses a threat to shipping lanes and will eventually spin out in the north/central Atlantic.

The Tropical Depression moving off the Cape Verde Islands has become Tropical Storm Debby. Most of the models have the system recurving to the north and basically going to play with all of the fish in the North/Central Atlantic Ocean. I do not feel, at this point, that this Tropical Storm poses a threat to U.S. interests.

The graphic to the right shows the expected path and intensity, courtesy of Skeetobite Weather and data from the National Hurricane Center.

Of more concern to me is DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006), which is near the Carribean Islands. If, and that is a big if, this system does develop, it could pose a threat to areas from Eastern Florida to the Gulf of Mexico. This will be one to be watched.

Now, before I go into the next part, please understand that the chances of the following are remote, but in my opinion, presents the highest risk of potential tropical conditions for our area.

There are models showing a Low Pressure System forming by this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico that could reach tropical conditions affecting areas from the Alabama/Mississippi border to Panama City, Florida. What is funny is that right now, it does not exist. However, conditions could be ripe for development and if that does happen, it would have the potential to pose a threat to the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area.

I should have a better idea of this potential either Wednesday night or Thursday.

I am adding my usual disclaimer to this entry as I feel that with the increased tropical activity we will probably be seeing some sort of threat over the next 3 weeks, if not sooner.

THESE UPDATES AND ADVISORIES ARE UNOFFICIAL. They are based upon information from our own computer models, the NOAA Hurricane Predictions Center and their local weather stations and buoys, plus OFFICIAL press releases from local and State Government offices in the affected areas. For COMPLETE and OFFICIAL UPDATES, please monitor your local Emergency Government Broadcasts on local radio and TV and follow their instructions to the letter. Do not make personal safety decisions based upon the information that is provided here.

TD #4 is looking pretty strong, and the NHC has the possibility of a Hurricane Debby in the next 12 hours.

This storm is tracking more westward than initially thought, and could pose a threat to the Lower Antilles. As far as the GoM is concerned, I am not sure it can make it, however, there is a “disturbance” in the Caribbean Islands that could form up later this week, hence my though that by this weekend we have an outside possibility of a tropical system in the Gulf.

In any case, all of these systems are a long way from here, and we are still looking good in terms of avoiding a strike for the present time.

The tropical waves continue to roll off of the African Coast, and we are seeing increasingly favorable conditions for development on our stretch of the beach. As we have discussed, the lull appears to be over and I feel that we will be seeing several systems spin up over the next 8 weeks.

I will provide additional updates tomorrow and as conditions warrant.

There are three tropical waves rolling around right now. All COULD develop, and all three face significant trouble in development.

Invest 92L – Caribbean Sea
This one still looks decidedly ill, but does have some room for slow development over the next few days. Shear and dry air remain it’s biggest challenge, and at this point it is facing an uphill battle.

Invest 93L – East of Florida
This one looks to be pure confusion as different models have it going every which way. Regardless of where this wave goes, it is still facing a battle for development, and most likely if it does attain Tropical Storm status, the focus will be from Florida to North Carolina.

Invest 94L – Cape Verde Islands
Our two friends are still with us and posing a threat to this wave: Shear and Dry Air, but this one is large, and has plenty of running room. Definitely one to watch, however, there is a strong chance that even if it did develop, it would stay out to sea.

In short, we have some potential for development over the next week, and none of the three waves seem to have a better shot than any of the others at developing. As always, we will watch and wait.