Ernesto has slightly strengthened, but is encountering shear. The models vary, 2 showing him nearly dissipating by Monday and others showing a major hurricane striking the area around the Florida Panhandle.
The NHC track, (see graphic), does not bode well for our location, but as we have discussed, Ernesto has to combat shear and some land masses before he emerges into the warm Gulf waters.
Based on the data so far, it looks as if we will be facing a “Labor Day Weekend” storm, but the intensity and exact location remain unknown. At the time of this writing the NHC is preparing another advisory.
Regretfully, I am in complete agreement with the NHC track at this time, (with a slight nudge to the east) and UNOFFICIALLY estimate landfall of this system between Dauphin Island, AL and Panama City, FL early Saturday morning.
Having said that, this system does present a few notes:
- It is not in the Gulf of Mexico and still remains in danger of dissapating.
- Mexico to Louisiana are not out of the woods as the system remains vulnerable to steering currents.
Debby
Of note, Debby has weakened to a Tropical Depression, and still presents no threat to land.
THESE UPDATES AND ADVISORIES ARE UNOFFICIAL. They are based upon information from our own computer models, the NOAA Hurricane Predictions Center and their local weather stations and buoys, plus OFFICIAL press releases from local and State Government offices in the affected areas. For COMPLETE and OFFICIAL UPDATES, please monitor your local Emergency Government Broadcasts on local radio and TV and follow their instructions to the letter. Do not make personal safety decisions based upon the information that is provided here.