This hurricane is undergoing rapid intensification, and models have shifted it east.
The Florida peninsula appears t0 be under the gun at the moment.
I must urge all in the cone of this storm to begin preparations to secure life and property. This is an extremely dangerous environment.
The NHC Advisory quotes:
BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK
WERE REQUIRED…UNFORTUNATELY…FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE
ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE IS FORMING AND
MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT…WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62 KT SURFACE WINDS…SO ERNESTO IS VERY
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE EYE IS SO SMALL…HOWEVER…THAT THE FLIGHT CREW
HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED ON
THE SYSTEM NOW…AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING OUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
The tracks and models continue to show an easterly movement, however, until this system emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, a definative track is all but impossible to deliver.