Tropical Storm Debby

The Tropical Depression moving off the Cape Verde Islands has become Tropical Storm Debby. Most of the models have the system recurving to the north and basically going to play with all of the fish in the North/Central Atlantic Ocean. I do not feel, at this point, that this Tropical Storm poses a threat to U.S. interests.

The graphic to the right shows the expected path and intensity, courtesy of Skeetobite Weather and data from the National Hurricane Center.

Of more concern to me is DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006), which is near the Carribean Islands. If, and that is a big if, this system does develop, it could pose a threat to areas from Eastern Florida to the Gulf of Mexico. This will be one to be watched.

Now, before I go into the next part, please understand that the chances of the following are remote, but in my opinion, presents the highest risk of potential tropical conditions for our area.

There are models showing a Low Pressure System forming by this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico that could reach tropical conditions affecting areas from the Alabama/Mississippi border to Panama City, Florida. What is funny is that right now, it does not exist. However, conditions could be ripe for development and if that does happen, it would have the potential to pose a threat to the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area.

I should have a better idea of this potential either Wednesday night or Thursday.

I am adding my usual disclaimer to this entry as I feel that with the increased tropical activity we will probably be seeing some sort of threat over the next 3 weeks, if not sooner.

THESE UPDATES AND ADVISORIES ARE UNOFFICIAL. They are based upon information from our own computer models, the NOAA Hurricane Predictions Center and their local weather stations and buoys, plus OFFICIAL press releases from local and State Government offices in the affected areas. For COMPLETE and OFFICIAL UPDATES, please monitor your local Emergency Government Broadcasts on local radio and TV and follow their instructions to the letter. Do not make personal safety decisions based upon the information that is provided here.