Tropical information for the Coast, by the Coast,
Hurricane Gustav still has the islands to contend with, but should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a Hurricane.
It is to early to predict final landfall, but the northen Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor this storm.
The depression we discussed earlier today has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gustav, after data from the Hurricane Hunter mission was analyzed from the flight this afternoon. The graphics under the heading Tropical Depression 7 indicate the location and anticipated track. At this time confidence is not high in the models. Either myself or Gary will have an update this evening or in the early morning.
The NHC has issued its FINAL ADVISORY regarding Tropical Storm Fay as it appears that the Low Level Circulation and Mid Level Circulation have separated.
Rain and isolated storms can and will remain a threat to certain areas, but Fay is no more.
Tomorrow, on my blog, we will turn our attention to Invest 94L and Invest 95L.
The dry air interaction and lack of moisture on the west and southern portions sealed her doom. Keep in mind, again, the remnants of Fay will continue to produce significant rainfall and isolated tornados, but the combined threat appears to be over from this tropical system.
Should conditions change, either I or Gary will rapidly update you on this system.
Tropical Storm Fay has not lost it’s punch. It remains a strong tropical storm and is battering northwestern Florida, southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this morning with extremely heavy rains, flooding, gusty winds, tornados and frequent cloud to ground lightning. This storm is now resposnible for at least 11 deaths in Florida and Hispaniola.
Officials in Escambia County, Florida as well as Baldwin and Mobile Counties in Alabama and the Gulf Coast areas of Mississippi have issued emergency orders concerning persons in low lying areas to move to higher ground or to report to County shelters today through Sunday as the storm approaches. 5 to 7 inches of rain are probable in these areas with localized rainfall totals in excess of 10 to 15 inches possible.
Please use the first link below for Tropical Storm information and the second link below for interactive watches and warnings.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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A Tropical Storm WARNING has been issued for Baldwin and Mobile Counties. This means those in this area can expect Tropical Storm conditions within the next 24 hours. Maximum sustainted winds are at 50 mph and Fay is not expected to weaken through Sunday. Rainfall totals could be in excess of 10 inches in isolated areas and are expected to be above 6 inches in the general region.
There is a potential for severe weather, including tornados throughout this weekend. Seas should be up to 8 feet above normal and Bays will be rough.
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THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.
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This unofficial advisory is being posted from data provided by WKRG TV Channel 5 and other sources.
Baldwin County officials are preparing shelters for residents in low lying areas. The following shelters will be opening at 18:00 Hrs. (6 PM) Saturday, 23 August:
-Fairhope Satellite Courthouse.
-Foley Satellite Courthouse.
-Baldwin County Level 2 Shelter on N. White Avenue in Bay Minette.
Persons along the Fish and Styx Rivers in Baldwin County may be some of the first persons who will need to move to higher ground or to the shelters. As slow as Fay is moving, the rainfall totals could be close to those experienced with Hurricane Ivan in September of 2004. Mobile County has mobilized their High Water Rescue Teams and have them staged at strategic locations.
Some rain bands have already come through the South Baldwin County region with more on the way for the overnight hours. For those with Weather Alert Radios on the NOAA alert network, listen carefully for watches and warnings as well as monitoring your local media stations. Use the first link below for Tropical Storm information and the second link below for interactive watches and warnings.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php
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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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Please review Comment # 1 under Acral’s Post – “Models are Going Crazy” – just below this memo. Thank you and be safe!!
With a 700 + mile cone, the NHC forecast is mired in uncertainty about T.S. Fay. Her maximum sustained winds are at 60 MPH, and is slowly moving westward dropping massive amounts of rain. Click on the image to enlarge it.
The graphic illustrates the confusion in the models, and strongly indicates that our area will feel the effects of Fay after all.
TS Fay’s westward shift appears to have begun. Thankfully, Fay will not be over water for much of her future. Unfortunately, she appears to be headed our way with copius amounts of rain. Flooding, especially in areas such as Santa Rosa County (FL) Escambia County (FL), and Baldwin County (AL) reamins a very real threat.
Rainfall amounts could range from 10 inches to over 18 inches. For our area, should the models verify, I would expect 6-8 inches of rain.
Invest 94L is marching to the west, but has shear and the SAL to contend with over the next few days. Rapid development is not expected, and there is a good chance that the shear and dry air will preclude any development.
