The mountainous regions of Haiti have taken their toll on Gustav. Models indicate that Gustav should pass just to the south of Cuba, but the mountains in southwester Cuba could limit Gustav’s strengthening over the next few days.
The models remain divergent with Gustav, with some bringing him towards Mexico. Trending and analysis suggests a potential threat from the Tex/Mex border to the entire coast of Lousiana. Outlier models are still hinting at a strong recurve north and placing portions of the Florida Panhandle at risk.
Historically, this storm, as Pastor Gary and I discussed, is very reminiscent of Hurricane Dennis. Gustav remains a small storm, with a small windfield. The favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico could promote explosive development. The storm remains a very serious threat to U.S. interests.