Tropical information for the Coast, by the Coast,
In terms of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, our early analysis suggests a partial Gulf of Mexico emergence, and then a hard north turn along the western peninsula of Florida.
Currently, we are looking at a minimal impact to the Gulf of Mexico.
However, these conditions can and will change rapidly, so please remain diligent in monitoring your local, state, and federal advisories.
The National Hurricane Center is now showing Dorian as a Category 4 major hurricane at Monday landfall along the eastern coast of Florida.
This is a deadly serious situation and we are asking that all persons in Florida prepare for the worst. IF YOU ARE GIVEN MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS, FOLLOW THOSE ORDERS!
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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ADDITIONAL: August 28, 2019 12 noon EDT – Atmospheric instability along it’s track can ultimately change the final landfall location and timing of Dorian. NHC has the landfall cone of probability stretching from Savannah to Miami. They JUST NOW (noon Eastern time) updated their projections for a CAT 3 or higher major Hurricane at Florida/Georgia landfall. Things have slowed a bit, so they are also pushing the actual landfall out to Monday morning, September 02. That could also change again.
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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ALERT: Named Storm Dorian has changed it’s northerly track slightly and will be moving through the open waters between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic over the next 18 hours. This means that there will be little or no interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola to lessen the intensity and the wind shear in the Bahamas that could keep this from intensifying has lessened in the past 12 hours . Most storm modeling agencies are seeing a Cat One or Cat Two Hurricane landfalling initially along the east coast of Florida on Sunday – with a probability cone currently from Savannah, Georgia to Miami, Florida. The storm could possibly cross Florida and enter the Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening could take place.
All persons in Florida, southern Georgia and coastal areas of the Gulf of Mexico should be monitoring this storm carefully and should be making preparations.
ALSO, Named Storm Erin formed from a tropical depression well off the US southeast coast. Tropical Storm Erin will remain off shore as it starts to track north-northeast and will not be directly affecting the East Coast of the US except for increased high surf and gusty winds. This will be our only mention of Named Storm Erin.
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Several computer models as well as our own are seeing a southeast and east Florida involvement for gusty winds, high surf, rip currents and heavy rain starting Saturday, August 31.
Persons in Florida should be monitoring the progress of this storm carefully.
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Named Storm Dorian formed from a low pressure wave approximately 700 miles east of Barbados in the central Atlantic. This Tropical Storm will move westerly for several days and will strengthen to near Hurricane status as it approaches the Lesser Antilles at the east end of the Caribbean around Tuesday, August 27.
Persons in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and Florida especially should be monitoring the progress of this storm. We will update our unofficial information as needed. Also, a tropical low pressure area already off the Atlantic Coast of Florida will be tracking north-northeast bringing high surf, rip currents and moderate to heavy rainfall to most of Florida and Georgia over the next week. This low pressure area could potentially become named storm Erin.
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Chantal formed in the central Atlantic from a surface low pressure area. This storm is moving toward Europe and will not affect the US. This will be our only mention of Named Storm Chantal.
Named Storm Barry 2019 – intensified from the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico referred to as Invest 92-L. This is a particularly dangerous storm because of it’s close proximity to land. Barry has the potential to bring up to 24 inches of rain to areas from the Alabama-Mississippi line to east Texas. All persons in southwestern Mississippi and southern Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding and river flooding. Storm surges could exceed the height of the levees near and in New Orleans. It is imperative that persons in the path of this dangerous storm follow all orders from the National Hurricane center, local Emergency Operations Centers and local officials – including evacuation orders.
UPDATE: Friday, July 12, 2019 @ 11:45 AM EDT – Maximum sustained winds at just over 67 MPH with gusting to 78 near the center of the low pressure area. NHC is once again projecting hurricane status before landfall early Saturday. Storm surge advisories and flash flood alerts are in place from south central Mississippi to the Louisiana-Texas line. This dangerous storm has the potential to produce 15 to 25 inches of rain in places where the ground is already saturated. This may cause tree instability and with heavy winds expected, power outages will be taking place.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
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“These
are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based
upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data
Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources.
FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local,
State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and
Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is
essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and
Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions
based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Low pressure area Invest 92-L formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a surface low that moved off the US southeastern coast. This storm is moving generally west and will be affecting areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas over the next week. We are unofficially advising all persons along the Gulf of Mexico from Texas to Florida to monitor the progress of this storm system and listen carefully to your local media broadcasts and official watches and warnings from the National Hurricane Center and your local NWS office. Even if this does not become a named storm, persons in the path of this storm can expect very heavy rain, gusty winds, high coastal rip currents, some beach erosion, lowlands flooding and the possibility of some tornadoes.
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
===============================================
“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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A disturbance moving through the southern US may move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid week, July 9 to 14. If conditions stay favorable, some tropical development could take place. We are advising persons along the Gulf Coast to monitor this potential very closely through your local National Weather Service advisories in media. You can also check the National Hurricane Center website for official information.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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