Very Early Projections for the 2019 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season

Our staff at TSRC has run East Central Pacific surface sea temperature (SST) data and our info is in general agreement with other analysts. A slightly warmer SST (El Nino) will usually create conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, that is less favorable to the formation of strong storms. The El Nino trend through late spring 2019 may reduce the chances of strong storms forming, due to mid and upper level wind shear velocities that keep storms from intensifying. With that in mid, we will also point out that any long range SST projections past a few months, are nearly impossible.

While an El Nino condition can last for a few years, it can also last just a few weeks or months. Therefore, we are simply stating that the early part of the 2019 season in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, may be somewhat less intense than during the same time period in 2018.

As always, we are watching conditions carefully and will update this report if conditions change. We will also be back in Mid May with Hurricane Season Preparedness information.

Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season Ends November 30, 2018

This season is ending on November 30, 2018. The volunteer staff at The Tropical Storm Research center appreciates the comments and support that we have received from our viewers.  This season’s storms have been as destructive as we have seen in recent years and we are keeping all victims and their families in our thoughts and prayers.

We will continue to observe storm formations in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico well into December 2018, but we are not anticipating much additional activity.

We will be back in early May, 2019, with season projections and preparedness information. In the mean time, please feel free to use the LINK located in our Blog section to get interactive information on INLAND storms in the US.

Thank you.

The Tropical Storm Research Center volunteer staff.

Special Unofficial Weather Advisory, November 8 to 10, 2018

Special Weather Statement for Thursday, November 8 through Saturday, November 10 – Upper Midwest and Plains.

While we do not usually send out unofficial advisories for INLAND storms, this situation is such that we are mentioning this for our viewer safety.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for parts of Northeastern Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, now through early Saturday. Snow, heavy at times, is anticipated in the areas mentioned with 4 to 7 inches likely. Lesser amounts can be expected to the south of the warning areas with 1 to 3 inches possible. There is also a possibility of some snow in Missouri and Arkansas over the next 2-1/2 days in areas where snow is not usually seen this time of the year.

For those persons who wish to use the National Weather Service interactive map, the link is being supplied below. Click on any area of interest and specific details for that area will show up on the next screen. Take care and be safe.

https://www.weather.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Named Storm Oscar – 2018

In keeping with our TSRC policy of at least mentioning all storms that are named by the National Hurricane Center, Named Storm Oscar formed in the central Atlantic  from a low pressure area. This storm may make hurricane status but will be moving generally north and northeast away from US Coastal areas and will not be a threat to the US east coast. This will be our only mention of Named Storm Oscar.

For official information on all named storms, please visit the National Hurricane Center site located here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Recap – Hurricane Michael – 2018

Hurricane Michael will go into down in weather history as one of the most powerful and devastating Hurricanes on record for a United States Landfall.
The lowest barometric pressure was recorded at 919 mb (27.14 in) just before landfall near Panama City Beach and Mexico Beach, Florida, on Wednesday, October 10, mid day… the third lowest pressure on record for an Atlantic basin Hurricane.   Winds were measured at 155+ MPH with gusting to 176 MPH before the measuring equipment was destroyed. The storm surge in many locations to the east of the eye was between 10 and 14 feet with 25 to 35 foot waves on top of that.

First responders have been making progress in their search and rescue efforts but we fear that the death toll will increase as inaccessible areas are finally reached.

Our volunteer staff at TSRC is keeping all victims of this catastrophic hurricane in our thoughts and prayers.

Named Storm Nadine – 2018

In keeping with our policy of at least mentioning all Named Tropical Syatems, Tropical Storm Nadine formed off the west African Coast a few days ago – while we were analyzing Hurricane Michael – and since Nadine poses no immediate threat to the US, this will be our only mention of this storm.

Please keep the victims of Hurricane Michael in your thoughts and please consider a cash donation to your favotite National Help Agency.

For official information on all named storms, please visit the National Hurricane Center site located here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Hurricane Michael – Gulf Shores, Alabama

Hurricane Michael has become a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120mph.  At the time of this writing, we are an hour away from the next official NHC advisory, however, there are many indications from the current hurricane hunter mission to suggest that Michael could be a Catagory Four hurricane now, or overnight.

In Gulf Shores and nearby areas, the surf is up and the winds are gradually increasing.  Michael is expected to move to the northeast of its current location, however, a more westward landfall from the current track is not out of the question.  Having said that, at this time our staff does not anticipate hurricane conditions in the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area, but full anticipate sustained tropical storm conditions.  (Winds 35-50mph).

This photo depicts the surf on west beach in Gulf Shores on October 9th, in Gulf Shores.

Unofficial Advisory – ALERT – US Gulf Coast for October 7 through 12, 2018

Unofficial Advisory – US Gulf Coast, for October 8 through 12, 2018.
 
Tropical Depression Number 14 is currently in the western Caribbean moving northerly. This storm system will become Named  Storm Michael very soon. The forecast track is generally showing movement toward the central Gulf Coast and will most likely be making a landfall sometime Wednesday, October 10 in the panhandle of Florida – as a Hurricane.
 

All persons along the Gulf Coast from the Louisiana – Texas border eastward through Mississippi, Alabama and the Gulf Coast of Florida should be following the progress of this storm and be prepared.

EDIT to UPDATE: Persons from Pensacola, Florida to St. George Island, Florida are in the primary landfall cone of probability for a MAJOR Hurricane strike on Wednesday, October 10, 2018. Please listen carefully to your local Emergency Management Office advisories and evacuation orders. Wind and gusts to over 120 MPH will be possible in coastal areas as listed above. Storm surges of 5 to 8 feet are probable along with flooding rain total and numerous power outages inland as well as on the coast. Take care and BE Safe.

 
For official information on all named storms, please visit the National Hurricane Center site located here:
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Named Storm Kirk – 2018

Tropical Storm Kirk formed south of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic from a tropical low pressure area. Kirk is moving almost due west at just over 18 MPH. The computer models for this storm are showing it interacting with some upper level shear that will prevent it from intensifying for a few days. The international tracking models are widely scattered as to where Kirk will be heading. However, we will be watching it’s progress and will add information here as needed.

(Note: Named Storm Joyce was short lived and did not pose a threat to any land, so it was not mentioned in it;s own thread.)

 
For official information on all named storms, please visit the National Hurricane Center site located here:
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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ALERT: Update – Named Storm Florence – 2018

UPDATE: Named Storm Florence – 2018
Florence is entering an area of very warm water that will allow the storm to further develop. International agencies who are doing storm track and intensity models are mainly in agreement that Florence will make landfall somewhere between the South Carolina – Georgia border and the Maryland – Virginia border late Thursday, September 13 into Friday, September 14.
We are recommending that all persons along the central East Coast of the US closely monitor this storm and make preparations, as advised by local official agencies.
For official information on all named storms, please visit the National Hurricane Center site located here:
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Also – Named Storm Joyce -2018

 
Subtropical Storm Joyce formed in the mid north Atlantic from a low pressure area and will be moving toward Europe, away from the US. In keeping with our policy to at least mention all named storms, this will be our only mention of Named Storm Joyce 2018.
 
www.gulfstorm.net

Information from the ground in the Gulf Shores area.