Inland Flash Flooding Potential – August 31-September 01, 2014

Our TSRC analysis software is programmed for Tropical Storm activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, but today one of our alert monitors sounded when it detected exceptionally heavy rains throughout most of Kentucky. Persons from central and eastern Kentucky to eastern Ohio, most of Pennsylvania, northwestern Virginia and western New York State should be aware of rapidly changing conditions and flash flooding. Our TSRC office usually does not track inland storms, but due to the excessive moisture available to this series of storms, we are just mentioning this in the website today since many of our viewers may be affected by this situation.

NWS Interactive Weather Advisory Map:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://www.gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Named Storm Cristobal – 2014

Named Storm Cristobal – 2014

Tropical Storm Cristobal formed out of a Tropical Depression and is currently located in the southern Bahamas and north of Cuba. A feature of the jet stream will keep this storm well to the east of the US east coast, however, persons along the coast from Jacksonville, Florida to the North Carolina / Virginia border can expect higher than average tides, strong wave action and rip currents with some minor lowlands flooding. Cristobal may slowly intensify to low category Hurricane status by Wednesday, August 27, but since this storm will remain off the US east coast, this will be our only mention of Tropical Storm Cristobal UNLESS a completely unanticipated westerly track occurs.

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://www.gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Area of Interest has gotten more “interesting”

Invest 96L is showing signs of life.  The dry air that it had been battling is all but gone.  Our models suggest at a Gulf of Mexico solution, but at this time, it is too early to tell.  As the system treks over the Caribbean and Hispaniola, it could deteriorate rapidly  amid the mountainous regions of the islands.  Alternatively, it could miss the brunt of the islands and slip into the GoM and have plenty of running room.

Having said that, this system still faces some challenges for development in terms of moderate wind shear and a packet of dry air remains just north of the system.  Chances are, we will see a Low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico by next week.

Forecast for next week.
Forecast for next week.

 

Tropical Storm Bertha – Final Advisory

Tropical Storm Bertha Update and final advisory August 03, 2014.

Tropical Storm Bertha has been very predictable. It is entering the area around Bermuda today and will start curving more and more to the northeast over the next few days – away from the US coast. However, persons from coastal Florida to New England can expect higher than normal wave action, tides and rip currents.

Since this storm poses no immediate threat to the US coastline, this will be our final mention of Tropical Storm Bertha – UNLESS an unanticipated westerly movement takes place.

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://www.gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Named Storm Bertha – 2014

Tropical Storm Bertha formed out of an area of low pressure (TD2) approximately 300 miles east of the Windward islands early this morning. This storm will be tracking into the Caribbbean and very close to Puerto Rico this weekend. It will then start a northerly movement taking it near the Bahamas by early next week. Because of unfavorable conditions aloft on it’s current track, this storm will most likely stay as a Tropical Storm rather than becoming a Hurricane. However, a few of the tracking models are showing a slightly more westerly track close to the southeast Florida coast which could put the storm in a more favorable location for intensification. We will post additional details as needed. Persons from south Florida to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this storm.

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

http://www.gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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