Category: Discussion

Special Unofficial Weather Statement for January 11 and 12, 2020.

A strong low pressure system will be moving across the south central US this weekend. There is also a cold high pressure trough that will be moving southeast from central Canada.

These two systems will be interacting to create severe thunderstorms across a wide area of the deep south. There will also be a high probability of heavy snowfall in the upper Midwest in many areas.

Please use the NWS interactive map link below to check on conditions, watches and warnings for your area. Take care and be safe.

https://www.weather.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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The 2019 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm and Hurricane season ends officially on November 30. This season has been just above average for damaging storms in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, with Category 5 Hurricane Dorian causing the most damage and loss of life in Late August and early September.

While no storm systems are currently forming, we will continue to monitor conditions well into December and will post if needed. Our Tropical Storm Research Center volunteers thank you for using our website for unofficial storm information and we will be back in Mid May, 2020, with season preparedness information.

www.gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Sebastien formed from a surface low pressure wave in the central Atlantic. This storm poses no threat to the US Coast and will be moving northeast into the north Atlantic. This will be our only mention of this late season storm.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Named Storm Olga has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico.

This storm is moving northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast and will be causing issues from southeastern Texas to the Florida Panhandle and inland a few hundred miles. Persons along the track of this depression can expect heavy rain at times, gusty winds, severe thunderstorms, possible tornadoes, high coastal surf conditions, rip currents and beach erosion. We are including the NWS interactive link below for persons to monitor stormy conditions caused by this system.

https://www.weather.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Sub tropical storm Melissa formed off the US Central Atlantic coast from a combining of two Atlantic low pressure areas. This storm is causing high surf, rip currents, heavy rain and very gusty winds along the US East Coast from Maryland to Maine. This storm is moving slowly northeast, away from the US coast, but the wind and wave effects will be felt for several days.

This will be our only mention of Named Storm Melissa.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Named Storm Karen is being steered erratically at the moment, but will start a westerly track toward the Bahamas and possibly the Southeastern US coast sometime Friday, September 27th. Persons along US coastal areas from southern Florida to the North Carolina – Virginia border should be monitoring the progress of Named Storm Karen.

Named Storm Lorenzo has made hurricane status and is projected to become a major category hurricane sometime on Thursday, September 26. The movement of Lorenzo will be essentially north from it’s current location in the mid central Atlantic. At this time, Lorenzo poses no threat to the US.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Friday, September 27, 2019: Named Storm Karen ran into upper level shear and essentially dissipated. The remnants of Karen could affect Florida with some moderate rain in a few days, but nothing to be concerned about at this time.

Named Storm Lorenzo formed near the Cape Verde Islands in the east central Atlantic from a tropical low pressure area that came off the coast of Africa. This storm is moving generally west and will be moving into atmospheric conditions that may allow development to Hurricane strength. This storm will continue it’s west to northwest movement for several days in the central Atlantic, however tracking  models are not precise past September 27th . We will post unofficial updates as needed.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Tropical Storm Karen formed near the Windward Islands of the far eastern Caribbean from a tropical low pressure area. This storm will be encountering unfavorable conditions for significant development over the next several days, however, an Atlantic High Pressure area will be steering Karen somewhat northerly for the next few days from it’s current location. Persons in Puerto Rico can expect Tropical Storm force conditions by sometime this Tuesday. Once this storm moves north of Puerto Rico, the steering currents may bring it more northwesterly starting late this coming week. If that slight turn takes place, persons along the Southeast and East Central US could possibly be affected by Named Storm Karen in just over a week, although long range track modeling is imprecise that many days out. We are recommending that persons in coastal areas from Florida to the North Carolina – Virginia border monitor the progress of this storm.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Hurricane Jerry is currently located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. As a result of movement of a central Atlantic High Pressure area moving east, Hurricane Jerry has been steered to the northwest and will move more northerly over the next several days which will keep it out to sea. Persons along the southeastern US will be spared any significant effects from this storm.

We are also watching several other development areas in the Caribbean and central Atlantic and will post information about those potential systems if the National Hurricane Center names them.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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