GulfStorm.net

Tropical Storm Colin formed in the mid Atlantic early this morning out of Tropical Depression # 4. Our track modeling is showing a mainly northwesterly path to the north of Jamaica and to the east of the Bahamas by this weekend. A fairly strong upper level low pressure area to the north of Tropical Storm Colin will introduce wind shear in the upper levels and will lessen the possibility of this storm from developing. The forward motion of Tropical Storm Colin is between 20 and 25 miles per hour, which is not allowing the storm to feed itself off the warm waters that it is traveling over and further reducing the possibility of development.

This storm will most likely remain a ‘fish storm’ – staying out over the Atlantic, as it takes it’s northerly swing off the US southeast and east coast after this weekend. There is one computer model showing a much farther westerly component to this storm and we will be watching the actual track closely. If the storm moves farther west, as a high pressure area over the US south moves easterly, there may be some storm interaction. This possibility could cause the storm to slow and to intensify, but that possibility at this time is not high.

For official updates and advisories please use the link below at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

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After Tropical Storm/Depression Bonnie crossed southern Florida, it never had a chance to re-intensify due to it’s high forward speed. As a result of the storm not being as significant as originally thought, the containment, cleaning, skimming and oil well intervention ships will be back on station today to resume operations. Coastal cleanup crews will also return to their operations today.

Please visit this blog frequently for oil related updates.

Tropical Storm Bonnie formed out of Tropical Depression # 3 just south of the Bahamas late Thursday afternoon, July 22. This storm is impacting southern Florida at this hour. This storm will produce heavy rain in places, Tropical Storm force wind gusts to over 50 MPH and will cause localized flooding throughout southern and west central Florida over the next 2 days.

This storm will enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and has limited potential to intensify because it is moving relatively quickly at 18 MPH. Due to the west northwesterly path of this storm, the oil well containment and cleanup vessels have been ordered to port. This storm will create strong wave action along the Gulf Coast from southern Florida to east central Texas. Unfortunately, the winds and wave action associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie will wash some heavier amounts of oil ashore all along the northern Gulf Coast.

Our next unofficial update will be posted as necessary. Please use the link below for up to the minute official updates.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

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Some BP oil well shut down, cleanup and skimming operations have been halted due to the wave action and winds from two storms affecting Gulf waters. This is a setback for BP and Coast Guard operations and is pushing the timetable back for final shut down of the well.

One storm, south of the Bahamas, is being watched closely for development as it approaches southern Florida and potentially, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The other storm, in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, also shows signs of strengthening and these two storms will most likely affect oil well intervention operations for approximately two weeks.

Please check this blog daily for additional information concerning oil well operations as well as the potential effects of the two low pressure area storms for coastal Gulf of Mexico states.

On Thursday, July 15, BP’s on-going efforts to reduce or stop the oil well discharge into the Gulf of Mexico waters was finally accomplished… at least for now. BP has not been releasing information to the public in a timely manner, so we do not have ‘real-time’ details as to what is taking place 5000 feet below the surface. Pressure testing is taking place as far as we can tell and BP is also looking carefully at sonar and sub floor data to make certain that there are no failures of the original well casing or drilling path.

BP has said that their ultimate goal is to shut off the well entirely with a relief well procedure sometime within the next month or so, but they will also be attaching up to 4 flexible connections to the legacy blowout protector as well as the new cap stack that was installed a week ago. Those flexible lines will go to the surface for the time being to process oil from the well at an anticipated flow rate of 53,000 barrels of crude per day. This will not only supply oil for refining, but will lower the pressures in the old well system to reduce the possibility of more leaks.

As of this morning, July 16, there is no additional oil being leaked into the Gulf waters. We certainly hope and pray that it remains this way and everything that has been announced by BP and Government official works out as planned.

Cleanup efforts along the Gulf beaches in 5 states are continuing. Please monitor your local media for updates and information on cleanup progress and other official details.

Hurricane Alex made landfall approximately 100 miles south of Brownsville, Texas at roughly 7 PM Wednesday evening, June 30. This storm is producing coastal flooding due to high surf and heavy rains throughout the southeastern Texas and eastern Mexico coastlines.

This storm will move inland over the next 48 hours and will produce moderate flooding in the Rio Grande valley. The coastal surf swells from Alex have shut down some oil skimming and cleanup operations from Florida to Louisiana but these operations will start up again today.

Please watch this blog for continuing local oil spill updates as well as for any additional Tropical Storm information during the 2010 Season.

This will be our final “Named Storm Alex” update.

For up to the minute updates and recaps, please visit the NHC site below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

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Named Storm Alex was upgraded to Hurricane level status late Tuesday evening. The storm intensity continues to increase and this storm may make Category 2 strength before making landfall near the Texas/Mexico border late Wednesday evening, June 30 or early on Thursday, July 01. Regardless of exactly where the center of the storm comes ashore, this is a large width storm and will affect a very large area with coastal flooding from storm surge and huge amounts of localized rain. This will be mainly in southeastern Texas and eastern Mexico.

The northeastern quadrant of this storm continues to produce higher than normal tides and surf into Coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the northwestern portion of Florida. This is also pushing higher concentrations of oil slick onto shoreline areas and wetlands.

We will continue to monitor this dangerous storm and will post unofficial updates as necessary.

For up to the minute updates, please visit the NHC site below. Our next unofficial advisory will be posted as conditions warrant.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

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Tropical Storm Alex: Monday, June 28, 2010 05:00 Hrs. CDT

As predicted, the storm crossed the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and emerged into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday. At 5:00 AM CDT, Monday, the top sustained winds are at 53 MPH with gusting to 67. This storm has slowed its northwesterly movement and that means that it will have more time to develop over the very warm Gulf waters. Our computer modeling is showing intensification to Category 1 Hurricane strength by mid-day Tuesday, June 29 or possibly earlier. The upper level steering currents are very weak in the area at this time and a northwesterly track across the southern Gulf of Mexico is still anticipated. This storm has the potential to reach strong Category 2 Hurricane strength later this week and we are anticipating an eastern Mexico or southeastern Texas landfall on Thursday, July 01 into Friday, July 02.

When this storm intensifies, the right side of the storm, especially, (east side) will have some effect on wave action and tides along the northern Gulf Coast… where the oil spill is. Some additional oil movement with this impending Hurricane is inevitable. While the central part of the storm itself will be well west of the spill area, the width of this storm will produce interaction with the spill and officials are monitoring this additional problem hourly.

For up to the minute updates, please visit the NHC site below. Our next unofficial advisory will be posted as conditions warrant.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

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2010 Named Storm Alex – formed in the west central Caribbean Sea early Saturday, June 26. This storm is moving to the west-northwest and is traveling over very warm surface water. We are expecting this storm to intensify slightly before it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula. It will then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and it’s shape, track and remaining energy after being over land is difficult to predict.

Computer modeling is showing several possible tracks in the Gulf of Mexico due to a number of variables. We are closely monitoring this storm and will post unofficial updates as needed. However, persons all along the Gulf Coast of the US should monitor this storm’s progress.

Please use the link below for frequent updates from the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

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