Month: August 2008

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The models are still nuts


Some data as well as imagery suggest that Fay may be stalling, and if so, rainfall could be measured in feet as opposed to inches.

It is starting to appear that our area may very well feel the effects of Fay, yet not in the manner I had thought. This is a very strange storm. This afternoon she appeared to be intensifying, but starting to look pretty rough at the time of this writing. On several sites, the thought from both amatuers such as myself and professional climatologists and meteorologists is “Fay go away and give us something we can make sense of.

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We have Noodles


Fay is still driving the models nuts, and I am proud to say that I WAS WRONG. The High is shoving Fay to the east, yet the models are bound and determined shove her back west even over north Alabama.

She has maintained her northerly track and does not have much potential in the way of intensification as long as she stays on her current path. A plus can be drawn in that she holds the potential to bring much needed relief to draught areas.

Fay is a killer. She is not done yet. Stay safe and vigilant, but for our area, the immediate threat is all but over.

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Shear and Highs

Fay has both, some wind shear and a High pressure system that is trying to keep her timid and push her to the east. The GFDL and GFS models toss her over the Florida Peninsula whereas the BAMS and NOGAPS bring her to our neck of the woods.

She appears to be showing a straight northerly movement which is very good for our area, and Florida in that her time over water will be significantly reduced. The key will be over the next 36 hours, to see where she takes aim. She remains a small storm, and appears to be showing signs of intensifying, but I don’t think she will become a major hurricane before landfall based on current data.

All of that can change in a matter of hours, but for now, our set up is looking better and better for us.

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Fay has trouble


The mountainous regions of Cuba may destroy Fay, but I doubt it.

The bath water we have discussed is still there and Fay is growing. She has an impressive anti-cyclone with her which allows her to vent energy as she creeps westward. Our cone of impact is edging towards the Florida panhandle, parts of Mississippi and Alabama should watch this system.

Fay has been stubborn and is determined to make a name for herself. She still has some obstacles to overcome, and that will be the telling. Another update inside of 12 hours.

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Tropical Cyclone Fay



According to internal reports from the U.S. Navy and the NHC, Tropical Cyclone Fay has formed. We expect an official 5-day cone at the 5pm EDT report from the National Hurricane Center.

Models continue to suggest that Fay will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico with the potential to become a major hurricane. At the early juncture, wild speculation could put Fay anywhere from Mississippi to the Florida coast line. New models are being ran, and I’ll have more information later today.

The NHC headers are:

293
WHXX01 KWBC 152000
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

DISCLAIMER…NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY (AL062008) 20080815 1800 UTC

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Please Welcome Pastor Gary

With over 20 years in Law Enforcement and a Doctorate in Theology and Divinity Studies, Pastor Gary’s impressive credentials lend themselves to storm preparation and analysis. Gary is an avid and accomplished spotter, running his models in conjunction with the public models that we use to provide timely and accurate information on this blog. He is also a Certified First Responder and Chaplin, providing vital aid in times of need.

His goals are the same, to ensure the protection of life and property, and provide assistance to those affected by the devasting physical and emotional trauma that follows a significant weather event. Please join me in welcoming Pastor Gary, as his experience and insight will prove invaluable before, during, and after a major storm.

This blog remains part of a project and plan that we (Gary and I) have been striving towards for over 3 years, first on various forums, and now, at long last, in a centralized location. Gary and I have worked closely together on weather patterns and severe events for over 3 years, and his expertise has proven time and time again to be invaluable.

On a personal note, Gary, I am proud to have you as a member of this team. For several years I have respected and appreciated your input, guidance, and friendship. Welcome aboard, my friend!

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Invest 92L has not developed a closed low level circulation, however, the maximum sustained winds remain at just under 35 knots. Satellite imagery shows outstanding outflow, better than some named storms. The waters are essentially bath water, with warm temperatures and low shear as well. The SAL is rapidly loosing impact in that the thunderstorm activity is becoming more concentrated.

The graphic to the above-left from http://www.weatherunderground.com/ illustrates the high Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) ahead of this Invest. This system remains a very serious potential threat, and is still expected to develop. For now, it is a small, compact system, which, as history demonstrates, could rapidly develop in a short time.

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Dual Threat

This graphic from the NOAA National Hurricane Center illustrates the threat areas we have been watching. Invests are good candidates with Invest 92L (the are closest to United States interest) showing a strong likelihood for development.
Some questions have been raised at why the predictions have increased the number of storms this season. The answer is that conditions in the Atlantic have become much more favorable for development: low wind shear, warm waters, and a lessening of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Additionally, there are no signs of a La Nina event, which would hamper storm formation as well. Over the next 48 hours, these two areas of tropical disturbance should be monitored.

The long range GFDL 12z model run presents the following graphic. The 2pm EDT discussion from the National Hurricane Center is as follows:
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DATA FROM NOAA BUOYS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OFTHE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THISLOW HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSIONTO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANEHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA.

Remote Data Backups

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92L and 93L

Invest 92L is followed by Invest 93L, and a vigorous wave coming off the coast of Africa threatens to become a thrid potential tropical system.

Invests 92L and 93L are both expected to develop and both will probably threaten the Lesser Antilles.

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Invest 92L – One to Watch

Invest 92 L has formed in the central Atlantic. Virtually all of the models bring this storm to Tropical Status within the next few days, with the SHIPS model being particularly aggressive in bringing this Invest to Hurricane strength in 3 days. The GFL is forecasting a tropical storm in that 72 hour window.

Shear and overall conditions are favorable for development, and the Lesser Antilles should experience tropical storm conditions within the next several days. The forecasted track could place this storm in or near the Gulf of Mexico, making it the first real contender for our area this season.
Elsewhere, another wave is expected to form/move off the coast of Africa, and could be one to watch as well.
For the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area, this is the “meat” of the season, and the next seven to ten days should prove to be interesting. As always, these potential systems are far to weak and too far away to make any guesses about how or where they will end up, however, for the next couple of months, our area could find itself “under the gun” a time or two.