GulfStorm.net

With over 20 years in Law Enforcement and a Doctorate in Theology and Divinity Studies, Pastor Gary’s impressive credentials lend themselves to storm preparation and analysis. Gary is an avid and accomplished spotter, running his models in conjunction with the public models that we use to provide timely and accurate information on this blog. He is also a Certified First Responder and Chaplin, providing vital aid in times of need.

His goals are the same, to ensure the protection of life and property, and provide assistance to those affected by the devasting physical and emotional trauma that follows a significant weather event. Please join me in welcoming Pastor Gary, as his experience and insight will prove invaluable before, during, and after a major storm.

This blog remains part of a project and plan that we (Gary and I) have been striving towards for over 3 years, first on various forums, and now, at long last, in a centralized location. Gary and I have worked closely together on weather patterns and severe events for over 3 years, and his expertise has proven time and time again to be invaluable.

On a personal note, Gary, I am proud to have you as a member of this team. For several years I have respected and appreciated your input, guidance, and friendship. Welcome aboard, my friend!

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Invest 92L has not developed a closed low level circulation, however, the maximum sustained winds remain at just under 35 knots. Satellite imagery shows outstanding outflow, better than some named storms. The waters are essentially bath water, with warm temperatures and low shear as well. The SAL is rapidly loosing impact in that the thunderstorm activity is becoming more concentrated.

The graphic to the above-left from http://www.weatherunderground.com/ illustrates the high Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) ahead of this Invest. This system remains a very serious potential threat, and is still expected to develop. For now, it is a small, compact system, which, as history demonstrates, could rapidly develop in a short time.

Invest 92L is followed by Invest 93L, and a vigorous wave coming off the coast of Africa threatens to become a thrid potential tropical system.

Invests 92L and 93L are both expected to develop and both will probably threaten the Lesser Antilles.

Invest 92 L has formed in the central Atlantic. Virtually all of the models bring this storm to Tropical Status within the next few days, with the SHIPS model being particularly aggressive in bringing this Invest to Hurricane strength in 3 days. The GFL is forecasting a tropical storm in that 72 hour window.

Colorado State upgrades expected hurricane season, Now forecasting 17 named storms; 5 intense hurricanes

“Even though the Florida peninsula did suffer the ravages of 3 major landfalling hurricanes during 2004 & 2005 (Charley, Jeanne, Wilma; also, Frances in 2004 [960 mb/ 90-95 kts] was very close to cat-3 intensity at landfall)…….this area of America home to over 10 million residents is still FAR BELOW normal when it comes to major hurricane direct hits since 1965 (only 4 category 3 or higher hurricane landfalls during the 42 year period of record 1966-2007). Historically, the Florida peninsula is struck by a major landfalling hurricane once every four (4) years (climatological period of record 1851-2000).”

For the next few days, it looks as if we will have a slight break in the action, as there are no systems showing any real signs of development at this time.

Tropical Storm Edouard is strengthening from the benefit of reduced shear, making it entirely likely to reach land Tuesday as a Catagory One hurricane. Landfall is still estimated at the TX/LA border, but landfall could be a bit to the east in Lousiana if what may happen been a slight northerly “wobble” is a shift to the north.

Elsewhere, there are no immediate threats to land for the U.S. at this time and no significant development is expected over the next few days.