Category: Discussion

With November upon us and only a few weeks remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season , the probability of the formation of significant Tropical Storms is lessening each day.  The east Pacific “El Nino” effect has helped in reducing the frequency of strong Atlantic origin Tropical Storms this season.  While there is always the possibility of a late season storm,  we are not currently seeing any indications of conditions that would produce such storms.  However, our staff at the Tropical Storm Research Center will continue to monitor conditions through the first week in December and we will report anything of interest.

Thank you for using our website and viewing our unofficial advisories. For off season inland weather information, please click on our “Blog” tab at the top right of our main page for an interactive map that will provide local and regional weather advisories. You can also use this link:   National Weather Service Interactive Map

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Named Storm Joaquin was upgraded to Hurricane status by the National Hurricane Center after a ‘Hurricane Hunter’ aircraft investigated the storm early Wednesday, September 30.  The storm had taken a more westerly track and entered a more favorable area for development.  This Hurricane will be tracking northward  and by Sunday and Monday, October 4-5,  it will be close to the US East Coast near the North/South Carolina border. It will continue northward affecting the coast from Virginia to New England late Monday into late week.  Persons along the Central US East Coast and New England are being asked to monitor this storm by way of local media broadcasts and the National Hurricane Center.  High surf, heavy rain, on-shore winds, lowland coastal flooding and some tornadoes may be present in the areas mentioned starting this weekend. This Hurricane may make Major Category (>110 MPH  central eye winds.)

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Tropical Storm Joaquin developed from a tropical depression 380 miles southwest of Bermuda.  This storm will be moving generally northward over the next week or so off the US East Coast. It is not expected to make a direct landfall on the US East Coast, but unsettled weather may be felt along the area from the Carolinas to New England  through Tuesday, October 06.  Gusty winds, heavy rain, high surf and rip currents may be seen.   Unless this storm makes a significant turn to the west, this will be our only mention of Named Storm Joaquin.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Tropical Storm Ida formed out of a Tropical Depression west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic.  This storm will be moving slowly to the northwest for nearly a week. It will be  encountering upper level wind shear as well as dry air to it’s north, so significant development in the near term is unlikely.  We will watch this storm’s progress and post if necessary, however, this may be the only Named Storm Ida post, based on current data.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Tropical Storm Henri formed from a low pressure area about 250 miles east southeast of Bermuda within the past several hours.  This storm will move northerly and then northeast and may briefly affect the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend.  It will not be affecting the coastal US, so this will be our only mention of named storm Henri.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Tropical Storm Grace formed south of the Cape Verde Islands off the west central coast of Africa today, September 5. This storm will be taking a westerly track at approximately 11 to 15 miles per hour and will be near the Windward and Leeward Islands on Friday, September 11. This storm will be encountering upper level wind shear as well as dry air to it’s north for the next week or so. However, IF it survives the shear and dry air and gets into the very warm waters of the eastern Caribbean, some development could take place. We will update this unofficial advisory as needed.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Tropical Storm Fred  developed over the past 8 hours just off the western coast of Africa.  This storm will be moving north-northwest  for several days and will be encountering wind shear and dryer air to it’s north that will not allow rapid development.   However, in a few days that unfavorable environment may change.  We are monitoring this storm system and will post unofficial updates as needed.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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*** FINAL Named Storm Erika Advisory ***

Approximately an hour after our previous posting, Tropical Storm Erika encountered some strong mid level wind shear over Cuba and literally fell apart. All official watches and advisories have been cancelled by the National Hurricane Center.

Out of the abundance of caution, we have provided information based upon all available data because our goal is to keep YOU safe in the face of these storms. We thank you for following our unofficial advisories. If you wish to evaluate this and any other recent storms, please visit the link below and click on “Data Archive” from the left menu.

Tropical Storm Erika – Update – 6 AM USA EDT, 29 August 2015 –

Tropical Storm Erika has interacted with some of the mountains of The Dominican Republic but not all. The storm has gone through several central low pressure core replacement cycles, which has moved the storm a bit farther to the west and therefore, has pushed the projected track of this storm farther west as well. The CURRENT 6 AM USA EDT 29 August 2015 projections are for the storm to pass over central Cuba early Sunday, August 30, and enter the very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Warm water is the ‘fuel’ for Tropical Storms and strengthening is a good possibility. All persons who live in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should be monitoring the progress of this storm by local media broadcasts and the official advisories coming from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net/
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.
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Based upon our own computer modeling, as well as the information being released by the National Hurricane Center in Florida, we are asking that ALL PERSONS living in or traveling to the Bahamas and Florida closely monitor the progress of this storm. The Bahamas and almost all of the State of Florida are in the “Probability Cone” for the time period late Saturday evening, August 29, to Wednesday, September 02, for the effects of a Hurricane or strong Tropical Storm. The probability cone is the average of all commercial tracking models submitted to the NHC each day. Those models are showing some initial weakening as the storm encounters mountains on Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, but regrouping as it approaches the Bahamas Saturday into Sunday and further strengthening as the storm gets closer to southern Florida early on Monday, August 31. This storm COULD POSSIBLY be rated eventually as a Category 2 Hurricane with winds up to 110 Miles Per Hour near the center IF the mountains do not reduce it’s intensity. There are several variables that the NHC and other groups are attempting to sort out regarding track variations, however, if you will be in The Bahamas or anywhere in Florida over the next week or so, please use the National Hurricane Center link supplied below for OFFICIAL updates as well as monitoring your own local media for government announcements.

Please use the NHC link below for current official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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