Author: Tommy Cason

The 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm season will officially be over on November 30. The season has produced 19 named storms thus far and while this is not a record, it shows that the season was a bit above average for storm development.

While Tropical Storm Tomas continues to batter Haiti and western Dominican Republic with significant rains, wind and flooding today, we are reminded that there were no major event landfalls in the continental US this year (so far). There are no tropical waves to report at this time that could become storms and we hope that no new storms form during the final 3 weeks of the official season.

Tropical Storm Tomas developed near the Windward Islands today. The system is rapidly developing and will become a Hurricane this weekend. This storm will move into the Caribbean Sea and will be near Jamaica as a major hurricane by the middle of this coming week. Many land areas throughout the Caribbean Islands will be affected by this storm.

We will update advisories as needed and there are very early indications that this storm could get into the far western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico in roughly 9 to 13 days.

Note – We are not tracking Named Storm Shary because it will not be affecting any US coastal areas.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Tropical Storm Richard formed out of a tropical depression earlier today south of the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean Sea. This storm is entering an area where intensification is probable. Richard is slowly turning to the west and will approach eastern Mexico and make initial landfall as a Hurricane. It will downgrade to a Tropical Storm as it travels over land and then track north-northwest. It will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday evening October 25, where it will encounter additional favorable conditions that will allow Richard to possibly intensify to Hurricane strength again. The upper level steering currents that will be present in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday October 26 will cause this storm to have a generally northerly track. A US Gulf Coast landfall could take place as early as Thursday through Saturday, October 28-30, but that is a very long range estimate based upon our own computer modeling and predicting an intensity level this far out is difficult. It is for that reason that we are advising all persons along Coastal Gulf of Mexico states to monitor the progress of this storm carefully and to have your Hurricane Preparedness plans in place.

We are carefully monitoring this storm and will post unofficial updates here as conditions warrant.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Special Weather Statement for New England October 14 through October 19, 2010, for Blog viewers with interests in the region:

Two developing weather systems will merge off the Atlantic Coast of the US over the next 12 to 24 hours and will produce exceptionally high winds, heavy rains, high surf, rip currents, beach erosion and significant flooding in most of coastal New England.

While our weather research center normally does not track this type of storm, this weather event is shaping up to be a true “Nor’easter” and for that reason, we are publishing this unofficial advisory.

For residents of New England, please use the interactive Watch and Warning map in the link below. Just click on your home area on the map for current Watches, Warnings and Official Information.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Hurricane Paula formed overnight in the western Caribbean from a cluster of severe thunderstorms associated with regional convection (atmospheric lifting.) This storm was rapid to form, but the upper level winds and steering currents will not allow for immediate intensification. The computer track modeling for Paula is showing an eastern Mexico involvement through Friday, October 15, and a western Cuba involvement for the weekend. The mountainous regions of Mexico will decrease this storm’s intensity over the next three days, however, it will be caught up in an upper level system that will most likely curve it’s track back into the western Caribbean by early next week. We are carefully watching this system for any signs of a track change that could conceivably take it close to the Florida Keys and Miami early next week. We will post unofficial updates as needed.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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For persons with interests in South Florida:

Special Weather Statement

Tropical Depression # 16 formed out of a surface low pressure area just south of Cuba and merged with the far eastern component remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew. We have been watching this development for over a week and this Depression will most likely become Tropical Storm Nicole within 18 to 36 hours. There are some concerns regarding this system. While the computer modeling is not showing this as a strong wind or hurricane event at this time, it is showing significant flooding rainfall potential for south and east central Florida starting this evening, Tuesday, September 28. The potential for urban flooding west of a line from Key Largo, Florida to Miami, Florida, to West Palm Beach, Florida, is likely. Because of the rapid development of this system and the close proximity to south Florida already, we are recommending that residents of south Florida listen closely to your local media and emergency government broadcasts. This storm also has the potential to merge with the off-shore moisture and thunderstorm activity from a stationary front positioned over most of Florida, however, upper level conditions may prevent this. A dip in the Jet Stream will funnel the system toward the north-northeast off the northeastern Florida coast by Thursday and this storm will affect coastal Georgia and the Carolinas with some heavy rainfall in places and the potential for some coastal flooding and rip currents Thursday into Friday. The storm will then travel up the east coast of the US as a low pressure area by the weekend and bring with it rains and thunderstorms.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Tropical Storm Matthew formed in the southwestern Caribbean this afternoon. Conditions are favorable for this storm to reach Hurricane status within 36 to 60 hours. Two weather features will be steering this storm to the north after it makes a Nicaragua or Honduras landfall early Saturday. That turn to the north is problematic for residents along the entire Gulf Coast and early computer models are showing a high probability of a Hurricane affecting the Gulf mid to late week, September 29 through October 02. We are watching the development of this system closely and even though tracking is imprecise at this time, we are recommending that residents of the Gulf Coast states monitor this storm carefully and have your Hurricane Preparedness plans in place. We will post updates as conditions warrant.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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For persons with interests along the East Coast of the US:

Named Storm Igor is a serious Major Hurricane. While the projected track of Igor will be over Bermuda and then into the North Atlantic, the coastal effects of Igor will be felt from Miami, Florida all the way to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. High waves with occasional rogue waves as well as deadly rip currents along beaches will be taking place for the next week or so. This will include some beach erosion and some possible lowlands flooding. We are recommending that persons along the East Coast of the US from southern Florida to New England monitor coastal advisories concerning Hurricane Igor closely. We will post updates as needed in this thread.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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Tropical Storm Karl formed in the western Caribbean overnight. The storm will cross the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. It may make hurricane status before it makes a second landfall in northeastern Mexico on Saturday, September 18. This storm will not directly affect the US, but some higher than normal wave action and rip currents along the US Gulf Coast may be felt over the next 4 days. This will be our only posting for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Karl unless an unexpected tracking change takes place.

For up to the minute official advisories and information, please visit the NHC website in Miami.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

=============================================

“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

http://www.wootaah.blogspot.com

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