Author: Pastor Gary

Several computer models as well as our own are seeing a southeast and east Florida involvement for gusty winds, high surf, rip currents and heavy rain starting Saturday, August 31.
Persons in Florida should be monitoring the progress of this storm carefully.
For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Named Storm Dorian formed from a low pressure wave approximately 700 miles east of Barbados in the central Atlantic. This Tropical Storm will move westerly for several days and will strengthen to near Hurricane status as it approaches the Lesser Antilles at the east end of the Caribbean around Tuesday, August 27.

Persons in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and Florida especially should be monitoring the progress of this storm. We will update our unofficial information as needed. Also, a tropical low pressure area already off the Atlantic Coast of Florida will be tracking north-northeast bringing high surf, rip currents and moderate to heavy rainfall to most of Florida and Georgia over the next week. This low pressure area could potentially become named storm Erin.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Chantal formed in the central Atlantic from a surface low pressure area. This storm is moving toward Europe and will not affect the US. This will be our only mention of Named Storm Chantal.

Named Storm Barry 2019 – intensified from the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico referred to as Invest 92-L. This is a particularly dangerous storm because of it’s close proximity to land. Barry has the potential to bring up to 24 inches of rain to areas from the Alabama-Mississippi line to east Texas. All persons in southwestern Mississippi and southern Louisiana are at risk for flash flooding and river flooding. Storm surges could exceed the height of the levees near and in New Orleans. It is imperative that persons in the path of this dangerous storm follow all orders from the National Hurricane center, local Emergency Operations Centers and local officials – including evacuation orders.

UPDATE: Friday, July 12, 2019 @ 11:45 AM EDT – Maximum sustained winds at just over 67 MPH with gusting to 78 near the center of the low pressure area. NHC is once again projecting hurricane status before landfall early Saturday. Storm surge advisories and flash flood alerts are in place from south central Mississippi to the Louisiana-Texas line. This dangerous storm has the potential to produce 15 to 25 inches of rain in places where the ground is already saturated. This may cause tree instability and with heavy winds expected, power outages will be taking place.

https://www.weather.gov/lix/

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Low pressure area Invest 92-L formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a surface low that moved off the US southeastern coast. This storm is moving generally west and will be affecting areas of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas over the next week. We are unofficially advising all persons along the Gulf of Mexico from Texas to Florida to monitor the progress of this storm system and listen carefully to your local media broadcasts and official watches and warnings from the National Hurricane Center and your local NWS office. Even if this does not become a named storm, persons in the path of this storm can expect very heavy rain, gusty winds, high coastal rip currents, some beach erosion, lowlands flooding and the possibility of some tornadoes.

For official watches and warnings, visit the NHC website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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A disturbance moving through the southern US may move into the northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid week, July 9 to 14. If conditions stay favorable, some tropical development could take place. We are advising persons along the Gulf Coast to monitor this potential very closely through your local National Weather Service advisories in media. You can also check the National Hurricane Center website for official information.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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The 2019 Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season has not produced any named storms since June 01. If this inactivity continues into early July, a record could be set for the longest duration without Tropical activity. We hope that this trend continues, but none the less, we are monitoring the usual formation locations and will report any activity as needed.

Thank you for visiting our website and please bookmark it for easy access.

Subtropical Storm Andrea formed from a series of low pressure areas southwest of Bermuda. This storm will be moving to the north and then northeast away from the US East Coast over the next week or so. Since this named storm will not be affecting the USA, this will be our only mention of subtropical storm Andrea.

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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In keeping with our policy of providing seasonal Tropical Storm and Hurricane preparedness information, please use the link below for valuable pre-season preparedness information as supplied by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The 2019 Atlantic basin season runs from June 1 to November 30 and now is the time to review procedures so you can be prepared and to keep your family safe.

https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Our staff at TSRC has run East Central Pacific surface sea temperature (SST) data and our info is in general agreement with other analysts. A slightly warmer SST (El Nino) will usually create conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, that is less favorable to the formation of strong storms. The El Nino trend through late spring 2019 may reduce the chances of strong storms forming, due to mid and upper level wind shear velocities that keep storms from intensifying. With that in mid, we will also point out that any long range SST projections past a few months, are nearly impossible.

While an El Nino condition can last for a few years, it can also last just a few weeks or months. Therefore, we are simply stating that the early part of the 2019 season in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, may be somewhat less intense than during the same time period in 2018.

As always, we are watching conditions carefully and will update this report if conditions change. We will also be back in Mid May with Hurricane Season Preparedness information.