Author: Pastor Gary

Volunteer senior Tropical Storm analyst with TSRC /// Semi Retired Christian Pastor, serving Alabama, Michigan, Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, Wisconsin and Florida seasonally /// Chaplain Responder, into storm devastation areas.
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Hurricane Matthew 2016 – Recap

Named Storm Matthew has set records throughout it’s long life. Unfortunately, those records are all very bad. The death count is nearing 1000 souls in the Caribbean, Bahamas and the United States. The human tragedy has been great with severe flooding taking an extreme toll on homes and businesses. Flooding in parts of three US states is still on-going and many streets, roads and Interstates are still closed due to trees down and high water. Power is out for approximately 1 million persons in 5 states and this will be slow to be repaired.
 
This was the first Major Category landfalling hurricane in the US in several years and while some persons refused to follow evacuation orders, the majority of persons did travel inland to relative safety. Those who stayed in place in the face of this deadly hurricane were some of the one’s who were killed. Perhaps now, those persons who stayed in the primary devastation areas and survived will think twice in the future and leave. The fact that they did stay in mandatory evacuation areas put first responders lives at risk, That is completely unacceptable.
 
We wish to thank our viewers for following our ‘unofficial’ advisories and updates during this event. This is our final “Named Storm Matthew – 2016” post.
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Tropical Weather Situation Update 1 PM EDT Tuesday, Oct. 4, 2016

Tropical Weather Situation Update 1 PM Tuesday, October 4:
 
The National Hurricane Center has named a Tropical Storm in the central Atlantic as “Nicole”. This new storm may not be affecting the US in the near future and with the deadly effects of Major Hurricane Matthew currently taking place, we will not expend our resources on this new storm. We are simply mentioning Tropical Storm Nicole one time for now.
 
For all persons in Florida and along the US east Coast, PLEASE monitor your local weather updates in media and listen carefully for any official advisories from your local Emergency Management Office regarding Hurricane Matthew.
 
Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
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Hurricane Matthew – Unofficial Update Oct. 3 @ 7PM EDT

Hurricane Matthew –  info.
 
Hurricane Matthew is heading for Jamaica, Southeastern Cuba and Haiti at this hour. Haiti will be receiving the worst of this storm. The people of Haiti have limited resources and are still recovering from the magnatude 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The potential for casualties in Haiti with Hurricane Matthew is very high.
 
Our own computer modeling and analysis of available data is placing the hurricane as a Category 3 or 4 in fairly close proximity to the entire east coast of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas starting roughly mid day on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Even the National Hurricane Center tracking projections are imprecise at this time due to a very complex weather system that will be affecting the direction of the hurricane.
 
We are once again calling for EVERYONE along the East Coast of the US to be monitoring the progress of this deadly hurricane in local media and official sources and to have preparedness plans in place.
 
Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  
================================================== “These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
https://gulfstorm.net
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama =============================================
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UPDATE: Hurricane Matthew – 2016 (3:45 AM EDT, September 30)

Hurricane Matthew Information September 30 at 3:45 AM EDT:  This storm has quickly strengthened to Category 2 levels and will continue to strengthen to a Major Hurricane of at least Category 3 (core winds of at least 111 MPH).  The storm is currently located in the central Caribbean and most official multi-agency tracking models are showing an abrupt turn to the north sometime on Saturday, October 01, with movement across southeastern Cuba and into the southern Bahamas by early this coming week. Future tracking models, from most official agencies, are placing this Hurricane some distance off the eastern Florida coast by mid week and then are showing it interacting with much of the US East Coast.  While it is still too early to make a more precise forecast, the National Hurricane Center in Miami is also suggesting that all persons in Florida and the  US East Coast be monitoring official agency advisories.  Any slight movement farther west over the next few days will involve more US coastline.
Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama

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Named Storm Matthew – 2016

Tropical Storm Matthew formed near the Windward Islands from a tropical low pressure wave. This storm is currently somewhat unpredictable due to a potential interaction with a cold front and low pressure area that is moving off the US Southeast coast.  However, we are suggesting that all persons along the Gulf Coast, all of Florida and the East Coast of the US monitor the progress of this storm for safety reasons and early planning.   We are monitoring it’s progress and will post updates as necessary.

UPDATE September 29: The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Matthew to Hurricane status. Multi Agency tracking projections are hinting that the low pressure area that is moving off the US East Coast will steer this system northerly and then northeast. However, the timing of this interaction is critical and we are still suggesting that everyone along the Gulf and East Coasts of the US monitor this Hurricane through the National Hurricane Center website URL below –

Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Named Storm Lisa – 2016

Tropical Storm Lisa developed from Tropical Depression 13 in the east central Atlantic.  This storm will be encountering some unfavorable conditions over the next 4 days and may weaken back to a depression level.  This storm will be directed northerly and then northeasterly back out to sea within 6 days. Since Tropical Storm Lisa will not be a threat to the coastal US, this will be our only mention of this storm. IF an unexpected track change occurs, we may post an update.

Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Named Storm Karl – 2016

Tropical Storm Karl formed in the central Atlantic from a strong low pressure area (Tropical Depression Twelve.)  Karl is moving west  at 15 MPH and will most likely be located north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. The system is encountering some upper level shear and some drier air to it’s north which is lessening the chances of immediate intensification. However, by mid week, this system will be in a more favorable environment and could reach hurricane strength.  Even though it is very early in this storm’s formation, we are suggesting that everyone from South Florida to New England along the US East Coast monitor the progress of this storm.  We are monitoring this Tropical system and will add details to this unofficial advisory if the storm threatens the coastal US.

Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Named Storm Julia – 2016

Tropical Storm Julia formed in south central Florida from a tropical origin low pressure system. This storm will be producing heavy rain throughout northern Florida, far southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia for today and into Thursday. Persons on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern US and deep south should be monitoring local media broadcasts for official advisories. Lowland flooding, gusty winds, heavy rain, coastal rip currents and some tornadoes may be expected with this tropical system.
Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Named Storm Ian – 2016

Tropical Storm Ian developed in the central Atlantic from a tropical low pressure area. This storm is running into very dry air and upper level shear that will not only keep it at a low intensity, but will push the storm north and finally northeast away from US coastal areas.
 
This will be our only mention of Named Storm Ian.
 
Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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Named Storm Hermine – 2016

Tropical Storm Hermine  formed  from Tropical Depression Nine in the south central Gulf of Mexico. This storm is  moving generally northeast and will be producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, rip currents, some tornadoes, lightning and lowland flooding along most of the Gulf Coast of Florida from just south of Tampa to around Panama City through Friday,  September 2.  The storm will make landfall near Apalachicola and St. George Island on Thursday and will cross Florida to the northeast. The storm will then produce rain squalls in southern Georgia and along the Atlantic Coast of the US from central Florida to near the North Carolina / Virginia border by this coming weekend.  Some intensification may be possible before landfall.

All persons in coastal and central Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas should be monitoring this storm.

UPDATE 3 PM EDT Thursday, September 01, 2016: 

Named Storm Hermine has made Category 1 Hurricane status. All details in the post above remain current. Central storm winds are at 75 MPH with gusting to 88 MPH in places. The storm will track over northern Florida and southern Georgia overnight and will track up the coastal areas of South Carolina, North Carolina and southeastern Virginia over the next couple of days. The storm may interact with a high pressure system over the Mid Atlantic area and stall. This may bring heavy rains and coastal issues from Virginia to New England. All persons in the path of this storm should be monitoring local weather advisories for official information.

Please use the link below to the National Hurricane Center for official advisories.
 
 
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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”
 
 
Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama
 
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