Author: Pastor Gary

Tropical Storm Bertha formed out of an area of low pressure (TD2) approximately 300 miles east of the Windward islands early this morning. This storm will be tracking into the Caribbbean and very close to Puerto Rico this weekend. It will then start a northerly movement taking it near the Bahamas by early next week. Because of unfavorable conditions aloft on it’s current track, this storm will most likely stay as a Tropical Storm rather than becoming a Hurricane. However, a few of the tracking models are showing a slightly more westerly track close to the southeast Florida coast which could put the storm in a more favorable location for intensification. We will post additional details as needed. Persons from south Florida to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this storm.

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Hurricane Arthur Update 04 July 2014 05:45 AM.

As projected in a previous post, Hurricane Arthur came ashore as a Category 2 storm initially just southeast of Beaufort, North Carolina, around 12:00 AM and crossed over the Outer Banks at approximately 3:30 AM.  The storm is now over open water in the Atlantic again and is moving to the northeast at nearly 25 MPH.  Peak winds are still in excess of 110 MPH but will slowly diminish over the next 24 hours.

Persons from Coastal Virginia to New England can expect heavy rain, gusty winds, high surf, rip currents, beach errosion, some low category tornadoes and areas of lowland flooding over the next 12 to 24 hours.

This will be our final Hurricane Arthur info post. However, please use the information below if you have concerns about conditions for your own area.

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also supplying a link to the NWS US Interactive Storm Map:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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‘Arthur’ was upgraded to Hurricane Category 1 status overnight. The storm is strengthening and at this hour, is located off the South Carolina Coast moving northward at just under 10 mph.  Mandatory evacuation orders are in effect for the outer banks and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Vacationers and locals are being advised to go inland to I-95 as soon as possible and before ferry service and bridges are forced to close. Persons from the Georgia – South Carolina border up to New England should be alert for changing conditions.

11:00 AM 03 July Update:  The storm track of Hurricane Arthur has moved slightly westward since our 5 AM advisory. The sustained winds are over 90 mph near the eye wall core and this is expected to increase more. Landfall will be in North Carolina in the very early hours of Friday Morning, July 04 just after high tide. This will create a storm surge in excess of 6 feet in places to the north of the storm. Additionally, after landfall and the return of Arthur into the Atlantic, the storm related winds going on-shore from Virginia to New England will be substantial.  Persons from the South – North Carolina border to Maine  should be monitoring local NOAA and media information.

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also supplying a link to the NWS US Interactive Storm Map:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

============================================================

“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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As anticipated, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression # 1 to Tropical Storm Status. This storm is over relatively warm water near the coastal Gulf Stream and will intensify to high Tropical Storm force or Hurricane Category 1 within 12 to 36 hours. The storm track will be just off the east coast of the US extending from northeastern Florida to New England over the next 3 to 7 days.

Persons in coastal areas from Northeastern Florida to coastal Maine should be watching local media broadcasts for official information. However, many areas along the east coast can expect high surf, rip currents, heavy rain with lowlands flooding, some tornadoes, gusty winds and some beach errosion from a low to moderate storm surge..

Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also supplying a link to the NWS US Interactive Storm Map:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

============================================================

“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net/

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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The National Hurricane Center in Miami has designated Tropical Depression # 1 out of a strong low pressure area off the Florida Coast near Miami. We are anticipating that this will become Named Storm Arthur within the next day.

Computer modeling is showing this storm starting to follow the Eastern Coast of Florida to the north-northeast in a matter of hours. As it does, it will intensify and most likely become the first Hurricane of the 2014 season as it follows the East Coast of the US from Florida up to New England over the next 4 to 7 days. We will post unofficial updates as this storm progresses. Please use the NHC link below for official advisories:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

We are also supplying a link to the NWS US Interactive Storm Map:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

======================================================================================

“These are not official advisories. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here.”

https://gulfstorm.net

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

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Just a very early heads up… We are tracking a slow moving low pressure area off the coasts of South Carolina and Georgia. It is not moving very quickly at this time because it is associated with a stationary front, but once we get into early this coming week, it has potential to develop into a Tropical Depression and move back across northern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This has only a 10 to 20 percent possibility at this time, but it still should be watched. There is another weather system in the general area that may prevent development of this low, however we will keep on top of this and provide updates if needed.

Tropical Storm Research Center Staff –

Content Copyright TSRC 2014, All Rights Reserved.

The official Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season runs from June 01 through November 30 each year. The Tropical Storm Research Center volunteer staff has analyzed, tracked, evaluated and posted ‘unofficial’ advisories and updates on all named Tropical Storms and Hurricanes since 2006.  Our record regarding storm tracks, landfall intensities and locations has been a bit more accurate than some official reporting agencies.

With the 2014 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season at hand, we have already been evaluating potential storm development in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for several weeks. Our computer modeling software is running and we are ready to help you keep yourself and your family advised, unofficially, in the face of these devastating storms. We hope that you used the link that we provided to the National Hurricane Center “Preparedness Week” website. If you wish to review the information presented there, the link can be found in the posting just below this one.

The Tropical Storm Research Center volunteer staff is on the job and watching. We will post information on all named storms and thank you for following us here at gulfstorm.net . Take care and Be Safe.

Each year we request that our viewers, who reside in or have interests in Tropical Storm and Hurricane prone areas, use our supplied links to review season preparedness recommendations.

National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2014 runs from May 25th through May 31st. We are providing links to valuable pre season resources to keep your family safe. Please review the information in this link below and check back with us periodically during May for additional information and helpful suggestions.

LINK to NOAA Preparation Site >>>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

For INLAND storm information year round, please click on the BLOG button, top right of this page and then click on the Interactive Weather Map link that is provided.

For a list of state by state Emergency Management and Operations Centers, please use the following link:

http://www.fema.gov/state-offices-and-agencies-emergency-management

Thank you.

TSRC Staff

 

A moderate low pressure area, currently off the Washington State and Oregon coast, will be moving across the Rocky Mountains this weekend and will start to draw energy from Gulf of Mexico moisture. The wind patterns aloft and at the surface will most likely create conditions where convection (atmospheric lifting) will take place and with cold air to the north of the low and hot, humid air to the south, significant thunderstorm activitiy may form in the central Plains States as well as the Midwest early this week and extend into next weekend. While it is too early to predict severity, the computer modeling is showing an increasing potential this coming week for significant thunderstorm activity and the possibility of more tornadoes in some of the same central plains areas affected last week.

If you have interests in these areas, please watch your local media and the National Weather Service for official advisories and updates. Use this link for details on INLAND weather issues for the United States:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”

Tropical Storm Research Center, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

TSRC Link >>> www.gulfstorm.net

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Each year we request that our viewers, who reside in or have interests in Tropical Storm and Hurricane prone areas, use our supplied links to review season preparedness recommendations.

National Hurricane Preparedness Week 2014 runs from May 25th through May 31st. We are providing links to valuable pre season resources to keep your family safe. Please review the information in this link below and check back with us periodically during May for additional information and helpful suggestions.

LINK to NOAA Preparation Site >>>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/

For INLAND storm information year round, please click on the BLOG button, top right of this page and then click on the Interactive Weather Map link that is provided.

Thank you.

TSRC Staff