Above, we can see the wind field probabilities from both Gustav and Hanna. To say that the Southeastern United States is looking at the potential for a “one-two” punch would not be out of the question. For our area, models are tracking westward, for a potential hit in Lousiana, possibly near the Mississippi/Lousiana state border.
My personal models, after extrapolating data from NOAA and buoy data, strongly suggest a land fall in Lousiana, near the Mississippi border around late Monday to Tuesday. Gustav still has to traverse Jamaica and it’s brush with Cuba, and the models, including our own, could shift substantially. The potential for impact remains from the TX/LA border to just east of the AL/FL border. Anyone in this region should pay close attention to this system.
We will have a much better idea after this storm emerges into the Gulf of Mexco. As part of the NHC 11:00pm EDT discussion the following line is not encouraging for any in the path:
“HOWEVER…IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR.”
The EURO model hints at 3 hits into Texas – Gustav, Hanna, and the next storm which would be Ike, but so far this season, the GFDL has been the most reliable, and this is not the long term solution provided.
Currently, we have many stearing mechanisms at play, and while the consensus remains for a northern Gulf Coast landfall, the exact landfall will remain difficult to estimate until Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico.