Dean has become a Catagory Two hurricane and is rapidly marching WNW. He should become a Cat 3 storm over the next several hours, possibly before morning.
The models are slowly trending more to the north, placing Texas under the gun and Lousiana residents definately want to eyeball this system.
Most of the models are still holding for a Mexico landfall, however, the GFDL is acting like the bespeckled nerd sitting in the back of the class who, as grown ups, we tend to call “boss”.
That model is hinting at a breakdown of the ridge over Florida and targeting areas closer to and including Louisiana. I think we will see more models swing that way.
The NHC has slightly adjusted their model as well in defernce to this.
Dean is probably going to be upgraded to a Catagory 2 tonight and a Cat 3 tommorrow. Once it gets near to the Yukitan Peninsula and we have the high altitude data in (by tonight) we should have much better models. (Probably the 0z run) I think these models will surprise a lot of people. For now, Mexico looks to be facing a one/two punch, with Dean aiming at the Yukitan, then recurving slightly for a hit near the TX/MX border. Whether that plays out and Dean goes along with the crowd or goes with the smart little nerd remains to be seen.
We should havea firm grip on the impact cone of this system by Saturday. If there are significant changes, I will update again tonight, otherwise look for the next update around mid morning.