Alabama looks to be under the gun again this coming Thursday for severe weather including tornados, hail, and severe thunderstorms. Like the event last week, this will probably not be a “super outbreak”, but parts of Mississippi, Central Alabama, and Eastern Georgia appear to have the most risk.
The NWS statement reads:
GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING OF THINGSTHIS GO AROUND. THE GFS HAS SPED THINGS UP A BIT…WHICH GOESAGAINST WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS. I REALLYPREFER THE TIMING OF THE NAM…AND WILL USE IT AS THE BASIS FORTHE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST. I FORESEE A SCENARIO OF RAINMOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAINTAPERS OFF/SHIFTS NORTHEAST…AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REALLY KICK IN.SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE EARLYAFTERNOON…AND MOVE EAST INTO ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING. I WOULDNTBET ALL-IN ON A SQUALL LINE…EITHER…AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A GOODBALANCE BETWEEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THESTORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAYMORNING.
I will update as more information becomes available.