Author: Tommy Cason

Initial reports put the death toll in Alabama at fourteen with at least 8 deaths at Enterprise High School. Initial projections suggest at least two EF3 tornados and one EF4 tornado roared across the state.

At the time of this writing there are still active tornado warnings and there remains a threat for much of Alabama. Gulf Shores is experiencing perhaps the strongest weather of the dat at this time, 6:07pm, and it should be over for us in about 30 minutes.

The storms in Central Alabama are starting to line up and the tornado threat appears to be diminishing. It will still be dangerous across the state for the next few hours then the front itself will pass and we can put this one in the history books.

On a personal note: My prayers are with the children and their families from Enterprise and with the families across the state that lost loved ones today. So far, 14 dead and that number may yet rise.

In a severe weather event, avoid places like your car, mobile homes, open-style buildings such as gymnasiums, churches, and warehouses, and also do not try to use an overpass as a shelter.

Go to the lowest floor of the building, trying to stay in the center as best as possible.

The Birmingham office of the National Weather Service has released the following statement:

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAILLOOK LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY…AND SOMECOULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASEARLY AS 11 AM IN WESTERN ALABAMA AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET ASSTORMS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THEPOTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BUT THERE IS STILLA BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND SEVERITY OFTHIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

Alabama looks to be under the gun again this coming Thursday for severe weather including tornados, hail, and severe thunderstorms. Like the event last week, this will probably not be a “super outbreak”, but parts of Mississippi, Central Alabama, and Eastern Georgia appear to have the most risk.

The NWS statement reads:

GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING OF THINGSTHIS GO AROUND. THE GFS HAS SPED THINGS UP A BIT…WHICH GOESAGAINST WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS. I REALLYPREFER THE TIMING OF THE NAM…AND WILL USE IT AS THE BASIS FORTHE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST. I FORESEE A SCENARIO OF RAINMOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAINTAPERS OFF/SHIFTS NORTHEAST…AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REALLY KICK IN.SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE EARLYAFTERNOON…AND MOVE EAST INTO ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING. I WOULDNTBET ALL-IN ON A SQUALL LINE…EITHER…AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A GOODBALANCE BETWEEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THESTORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAYMORNING.

I will update as more information becomes available.

The product aboove is also agreed via the NWS office out of Memphis TN.

Tornados and severe storms ripped through Central Alabama late yesterday afternoon. For the most part, property damage was minor. Once the first line of storms passed early in the morning, the Gulf Shores area saw nothing but sunshine and clear skies.

That was not the case between Birmingham and Montgomery as virtually all of the counties along I-65 at one point or another had a Tornado Warning issued for them. Fortunately, at the time of this writing, I have not had any reports of any serious injuries or fatalities.

This is the same system that damaged or destroyed several hundred homes in New Orleans and killed one person, injuring several others. While the damage was nowhere near the scale of a Katrina or Ivan, for the people in the path of these storms, the difference is moot.

This year brings some exciting technical changes as we will be adding new content resources to get the information we all need out as rapidly and efficiently as possible. Among the items we are working on:

Distribution to multiple media outlets as a storm threatens

• Regular content feeds
• On-site video from our spotters
• Comprehensive resources
• Additional researchers and responders

Now, with all that out of the way, on to the weather. The past month has seen a couple of localized tornadic outbreaks, each with fatalities, and there remains an immediate threat for the SouthEast on Tuesday, February 13, 2007. People along the Gulf Coast and as far north as Birmingham, Alabama should closely monitor the weather tomorrow.

While the potential for isolated severe weather exists, I do not feel that we are staring down the barrel of a “super outbreak” of tornados. I do, however, think we will have a more active spring severe weather cycle than we had last year.

As always, we will monitor this information and present our findings.

For most of our area, this winter is shaping up to be a fairly typical winter. The NOAA three month precipitation outlook shows moderate rainfall in along the coast. While the midwest and even the northern portions of the southeast have experienced snow and ice, I do not think we will see extreme winter weather along our area.

Prior to the 2007 Hurricane Season, this spring may require watching as the possibility for severe weather will exist throughout the SouthEast. As always, how frequently any given area will experience severe conditions is impossible to predict this far out, but as our warming trend begins, the possibility remains.