Tropical Storm Erika formed out of a tropical low pressure wave 450 miles east of the Leeward Islands over the past 9 hours. We have waited until this morning to post our first data about this storm because it is very disorganized and is moving in and out of Tropical Storm status with each overflight of the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. At this hour, the storm is just northeast of the Leeward Islands as a minimal Tropical Storm. Projections and computer modeling are all over the board on this storm, but the general movement will be to the west-northwest for 3 to 5 days before an upper level system will start to affect it’s track. Persons in the Bahamas and from southeastern Florida to the Carolinas should watch this storm’s progress because it has some potential for strengthening. Our next unofficial update will take place as changing conditions warrant.
For Alabama Gulf Coast Residents: There is only one computer model out of 23 that is showing any southern Gulf of Mexico involvement. This storm has a high probability of being an east coast storm similar to ‘Danny’.
For official updates, please refer to:
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“THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL ADVISORY. These updates and advisories are based upon information from our own computer models, NOAA, Local Weather Data Centers, deep water Buoy Data, and other publicly available sources. FOR THE SAFETY OF YOUR PROPERTY AND PERSON, please refer to your Local, State, and Federal Authority updates for Official Advisories and Orders. For up to the minute advisories and official updates, it is essential that you monitor your local Emergency Government, NOAA and Local Media Broadcasts. Please do not make personal safety decisions based upon information presented here in this Unofficial Advisory.”
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