GulfStorm.net

This image reflects the supercell that moved through the Dallas/Ft. Worth area earlier this evening.

Minor to moderate damage has been reported based on initial estimates. The NWS expects this line of storms to affect those in the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley areas, and should provide a moderate to high risk for severe weather. Some forecasters are pridicting as much as 2″ hail even along the coastal areas.

As mentioned in an earlier entry, the activity poses a significant, if not imminent, threat for severe weather. A station out of Dallas confirmed initial damage but was unable to determine if said damage was from straight line winds or tornadic activity. In a brief moment of levity, I propose that if our houses are damaged/destroyed, we really are not going to care whether it was a funnel or straight line. Seriously, a long tracking Supercell storm will produce both, and often it is important to note and track both events.

Get you NOAA radios and make sure the batteries are good, as this has the potential to be a long night for many of us.

There remains the potential for widespread severe weather for the Eastern half of the United States, for today and through the weekend.

Basically, there are three storm systems converging which will create a “Nor’easter”, possible similar to the event detailed in the movie “A Perfect Storm”. The eastern half of the U.S. will be affected, most of the area will be looking at gale force winds, beach erosion, and heavy snowfall. In OUR area, we will be looking at high winds, possibility of long tracking super-cell thunderstorms, hail, and tornados.

At the time of this writing, much of Texas is under a Tornado Watch and High Wind Advisory, with a couple of counties under a Tornado WARNING.

The threat for us should materialize later tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.

There remains the potential for widespread severe weather for the Eastern half of the United States, for today and through the weekend.

Basically, there are three storm systems converging which will create a “Nor’easter”, possible similar to the event detailed in the movie “A Perfect Storm”. The eastern half of the U.S. will be affected, most of the area will be looking at gale force winds, beach erosion, and heavy snowfall. In OUR area, we will be looking at high winds, possibility of long tracking super-cell thunderstorms, hail, and tornados.

At the time of this writing, much of Texas is under a Tornado Watch and High Wind Advisory, with a couple of counties under a Tornado WARNING.

The threat for us should materialize later tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.

Dr. William Gray has released his teams predictions for the 2007 Hurricane Season. The long and short of it is: 17 named storms, with 5 major storms. (A major storm is a hurricane with sustained winds in excess of 111 mph.)

Last year, from NOAA to AccuWeather, the hurricane pre-season forecast was a bust. The reason for this was the El Nino event in the Pacific Basin. That should not be a factor this year, hence Dr. Gray’s estimate that there is a 74% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast.

For the Gulf Shores area, history shows us that our peak activity and risk for landfall has traditionally been in September.

As you know, the names are rotated, with particularly devasting storms having their name “retired”. For this season the names are:

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Initial reports put the death toll in Alabama at fourteen with at least 8 deaths at Enterprise High School. Initial projections suggest at least two EF3 tornados and one EF4 tornado roared across the state.

At the time of this writing there are still active tornado warnings and there remains a threat for much of Alabama. Gulf Shores is experiencing perhaps the strongest weather of the dat at this time, 6:07pm, and it should be over for us in about 30 minutes.

The storms in Central Alabama are starting to line up and the tornado threat appears to be diminishing. It will still be dangerous across the state for the next few hours then the front itself will pass and we can put this one in the history books.

On a personal note: My prayers are with the children and their families from Enterprise and with the families across the state that lost loved ones today. So far, 14 dead and that number may yet rise.

In a severe weather event, avoid places like your car, mobile homes, open-style buildings such as gymnasiums, churches, and warehouses, and also do not try to use an overpass as a shelter.

Go to the lowest floor of the building, trying to stay in the center as best as possible.

The Birmingham office of the National Weather Service has released the following statement:

THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAILLOOK LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY…AND SOMECOULD PRODUCE TORNADOES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ASEARLY AS 11 AM IN WESTERN ALABAMA AND LAST UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET ASSTORMS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THEPOTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BUT THERE IS STILLA BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND SEVERITY OFTHIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

Alabama looks to be under the gun again this coming Thursday for severe weather including tornados, hail, and severe thunderstorms. Like the event last week, this will probably not be a “super outbreak”, but parts of Mississippi, Central Alabama, and Eastern Georgia appear to have the most risk.

The NWS statement reads:

GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING OF THINGSTHIS GO AROUND. THE GFS HAS SPED THINGS UP A BIT…WHICH GOESAGAINST WHAT USUALLY HAPPENS IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS. I REALLYPREFER THE TIMING OF THE NAM…AND WILL USE IT AS THE BASIS FORTHE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT FORECAST. I FORESEE A SCENARIO OF RAINMOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAINTAPERS OFF/SHIFTS NORTHEAST…AND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REALLY KICK IN.SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE EARLYAFTERNOON…AND MOVE EAST INTO ALABAMA DURING THE EVENING. I WOULDNTBET ALL-IN ON A SQUALL LINE…EITHER…AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A GOODBALANCE BETWEEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THESTORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE OUT THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAYMORNING.

I will update as more information becomes available.